Bitcoin News Update: Bitcoin Faces Uncertain Path as Hash Rate Shifts, Federal Reserve Actions, and Derivatives Leverage Intersect

Bitcoin’s recent dip below $93,000 has sparked increased debate about its short-term outlook, with experts such as Peter Brandt from

Tech pointing to significant changes in hash rate patterns and difficulty recalibrations as key metrics to watch. During the Q2 2026 earnings report, Brandt observed that Bitcoin’s hash price—now close to $39 per petahash per day— . He emphasized that this figure will be especially important as the next difficulty adjustment approaches on November 26, which may determine if the network’s hash rate continues to slide after its recent drop from 156 trillion to 152 trillion .

Across the broader market, there are few signs of recovery. Digital asset investment vehicles have experienced $3.2 billion in outflows over the past three weeks, with U.S. spot

ETFs alone seeing $1.1 billion withdrawn in a single week—marking the fourth-largest weekly outflow on record . Matrixport analysts attribute this trend to declining institutional interest, reduced positions from long-term investors, and the absence of major macroeconomic drivers, cautioning that Bitcoin’s ongoing pullback could be the onset of a “mini bear market” . This perspective is supported by on-chain analytics, which indicate that speculative leverage in derivatives has reached risky levels, while funding rates remain high.

The relationship between Bitcoin’s price swings and traditional financial markets is also under the spotlight. CNBC’s Bret Kenwell pointed out that Bitcoin’s 13% weekly drop has paralleled a 2.8% fall in the S&P 500, reinforcing the idea that the cryptocurrency often acts as a “leading indicator” for equities

. Greg Magadini from Amberdata noted that Bitcoin’s decline could deepen if credit conditions tighten and the Federal Reserve decides to maintain current interest rates in December—a scenario now given a 55% likelihood by traders . Magadini stressed that the Fed’s policy decisions will play a crucial role in determining whether major holders, especially in AI and crypto, may be forced to sell.

Meanwhile, the derivatives sector is showing signs of increased vulnerability. K33 Research has flagged a “worrisome” market setup as traders heavily bet on a rebound,

—the largest weekly rise since April 2023. Vetle Lunde, K33’s head of research, cautioned that this level of leverage could concentrate risk if prices continue to fall, referencing past instances where similar conditions led to average 30-day declines of 16% . The firm also pointed out that Bitcoin’s 30-day loss of -14.7%, compared to the Nasdaq’s -0.18%, highlights a growing divergence in performance even as correlations between the two assets increase .

Glassnode’s “Below the Band” report further highlights the market’s fragile state, noting that Bitcoin has dropped beneath key cost bases for short-term holders and the -1 standard deviation band, triggering panic selling among top buyers

. The analysis estimates that daily realized losses have reached $523 million—a level not seen since the FTX collapse—raising concerns that the correction could persist unless new buyers step in.

As these challenges persist, market participants are closely watching for possible turning points. The upcoming difficulty adjustment in November, decisions from the Federal Reserve, and shifts in ETF flows are all likely to influence Bitcoin’s direction. For now, however, subdued spot demand, high leverage in derivatives, and cautious institutional behavior point to continued volatility in the near future.