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Bitcoin News Update: MSTR Faces $2.8B Withdrawal Threat, Fueling Bitcoin Price Fluctuations

Bitcoin News Update: MSTR Faces $2.8B Withdrawal Threat, Fueling Bitcoin Price Fluctuations

Bitget-RWA2025/11/26 16:22
By:Bitget-RWA

- Bitcoin faces pressure to drop below $80,000 as technical bearish signals, ETF outflows, and MSTR risks converge. - MSTR's potential MSCI exclusion could trigger $2.8B outflows, amplifying volatility for Bitcoin and institutional portfolios. - Texas and Abu Dhabi expand Bitcoin holdings while institutions shift to direct exposure amid ETF redemption trends. - Regulatory uncertainty and liquidity constraints challenge Bitcoin's $100,000 trajectory despite sustained institutional demand.

Bitcoin is under increasing downward pressure, with its price at risk of falling below $80,000 as anxiety grows over a possible "MSTR hit job." This unease is fueled by a mix of negative technical indicators, changes in institutional

allocations, and anticipated regulatory shifts. After recently stabilizing near $87,600 following a seven-month low, Bitcoin now finds itself in a struggle between institutional buying and ongoing withdrawals. Major players such as Texas and Abu Dhabi are reshaping the market, while MicroStrategy (MSTR) becomes a central figure in hedging activity.

Bearish momentum has grown as analysts point to a significant drop below $75,000—a level that has previously signaled the onset of Bitcoin bear markets. Should this support fail, a move down to the 50% Fibonacci retracement at $60,000, or even as low as $36,000—a support level dating back a decade—has been

if $75,000 does not hold. This is especially relevant as , have experienced unprecedented outflows, with $523 million leaving in a single day on Nov. 18, extending a five-day streak of redemptions totaling $1.425 billion. This trend signals rising caution, as institutional investors like Fidelity’s FBTC and Grayscale’s mini-trusts.

At the same time, Texas has

, having already acquired $5 million in BlackRock’s ETF and preparing for a $5 million direct purchase of self-custodied BTC once infrastructure is in place. The state’s $10 million commitment highlights a broader move toward direct Bitcoin ownership, moving away from an initial focus on ETFs. Harvard University and Abu Dhabi’s sovereign wealth funds have also ramped up their Bitcoin stakes, with Abu Dhabi . These developments underscore Bitcoin’s growing role as a reserve asset, but also raise concerns about the durability of ETF-driven liquidity in the face of economic headwinds.

Yet, the most immediate source of volatility centers on

. The company, which owns 649,870 BTC worth $56 billion, awaits a crucial decision from MSCI in January 2026 that could see it removed from major indexes, potentially forcing $2.8 billion in outflows according to JPMorgan. This has among Bitcoin supporters, who warn that such an action could destabilize MSTR’s stock and impact the wider market. The risk is heightened by MSTR’s significant debt load, including $20 billion in convertible notes, and its function as a proxy for Bitcoin exposure. by $5.38 billion in Q3 2025, signaling a gradual move toward direct Bitcoin ownership and ETFs as regulatory clarity improves.

Tom Lee, CEO of BitMine, has

, observing that institutional traders are increasingly shorting the stock to hedge against Bitcoin declines due to limited options in derivatives. This has led to greater volatility in MSTR’s share price, which has dropped nearly 70% from its high last year as Bitcoin has fallen. While the company remains financially stable, to meet preferred dividend payments and manage debt conversions as Bitcoin’s price fluctuates.

The combination of these factors—technical weakness, ETF outflows, and MSTR’s uncertain status—creates a complicated outlook for Bitcoin in the near term. Although institutional interest in Bitcoin continues, the journey to $100,000 is clouded by structural issues such as regulatory ambiguity and liquidity concerns. For now, the market is closely watching MSCI’s January 15 decision and whether Bitcoin can maintain support above $75,000.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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