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Bitcoin News Today: JPMorgan's Bold Bitcoin Gamble: Potential for 1.5x Profit or 40% Decline by 2028

Bitcoin News Today: JPMorgan's Bold Bitcoin Gamble: Potential for 1.5x Profit or 40% Decline by 2028

Bitget-RWA2025/11/27 03:32
By:Bitget-RWA

- JPMorgan Chase launched a Bitcoin-linked structured note tied to BlackRock's IBIT ETF, offering 16% minimum returns by 2026 or 1.5x uncapped gains by 2028. - The product reflects institutional acceptance of Bitcoin as a tradable macro asset, aligning with ETF inflows despite recent market declines. - Investors face significant risks: potential 40% losses if Bitcoin collapses, though partial downside protection is offered for declines under 30% by 2028. - JPMorgan's approach mirrors Morgan Stanley's $104M

JPMorgan Chase has introduced a new structured note backed by Bitcoin and tied to BlackRock's iShares

Trust (IBIT) ETF, aiming to benefit from the expected price movements of the cryptocurrency ahead of the 2026 halving event. Filed with U.S. regulators, this investment offers at least a 16% return if reaches a specified price by December 2026, or unlimited gains at 1.5 times the ETF's performance if held until 2028, highlighting the bank's shifting perspective on Bitcoin as a "macro asset class suitable for trading" . This launch represents a notable change from the bank's previous skepticism toward crypto ventures like MicroStrategy, and demonstrates JPMorgan's move to meet institutional interest in Bitcoin exposure .

The note is structured around Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle, a pattern where prices have historically declined two years after a halving before rallying again. With the most recent halving in 2024, JPMorgan’s product is set up to take advantage of a possible price drop in 2026 followed by a recovery in 2028. If IBIT falls short of the target price by 2026, the note extends to 2028, giving investors a chance to earn 1.5 times IBIT’s gains with no upper limit

. Still, the product comes with considerable risk: investors receive partial downside protection (return of principal if IBIT declines less than 30% by 2028), but could lose more than 40% of their investment if Bitcoin’s value plunges . clearly states that these notes are not bank deposits and are not insured .

The regulatory filing signals a broader transformation in JPMorgan’s view of Bitcoin, which the bank now considers a tradable asset influenced by institutional capital rather than retail speculation. This shift aligns with recent inflows into Bitcoin and other crypto ETFs, despite a 30% market decline since October. The structured note also enables institutional clients to use IBIT as collateral, further weaving Bitcoin into the fabric of traditional finance

.
Bitcoin News Today: JPMorgan's Bold Bitcoin Gamble: Potential for 1.5x Profit or 40% Decline by 2028 image 0
Analysts observe that such offerings are becoming more prevalent as Wall Street firms seek to manage Bitcoin exposure through derivatives and ETFs, rather than holding the asset directly .

The structure of the product demonstrates JPMorgan’s use of early-call features to reduce risk if Bitcoin rises before 2026, while still providing investors with enhanced returns if the cryptocurrency rebounds by 2028. Bitcoin supporter Adam Livingston believes JPMorgan’s move into structured notes marks a turning point for institutional acceptance of Bitcoin, despite previous criticism from CEO Jamie Dimon. The bank’s strategy is similar to Morgan Stanley’s recent $104 million in sales of a comparable IBIT-linked product, highlighting the increasing appetite for crypto-based structured investments

.

Ultimately, the success of this structured note depends on Bitcoin’s ability to recover before 2026. Should the cryptocurrency fail to bounce back, investors may face significant losses, putting JPMorgan’s view of Bitcoin as a macro asset to the test. Nevertheless, the product’s debut illustrates Wall Street’s readiness to engage with the next Bitcoin cycle, even amid ongoing market swings and regulatory challenges. As structured products regain popularity after the Lehman era, JPMorgan’s launch marks a significant step in the mainstream adoption of crypto within traditional finance

.

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Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.

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