The bitcoin mining industry is facing the most severe economic crisis in its 15-year history. As of press time, the price of bitcoin is fluctuating around $92,870, down 27.67% from the October high of $126,000. This correction has directly led to a collapse in mining profitability, with the current hash rate at 1,075 Eh/s, remaining at a high level. Industry analysis shows that miners are in "the harshest profit environment ever," with most operators' daily revenues now below production costs, and the payback period for new-generation mining machines has been extended to over 1,000 days. Miners may be forced to sell large amounts of bitcoin to maintain cash flow, which could create a vicious cycle and further depress the price of bitcoin.
Profit Margins Continue to Worsen, Hash Price Drops to Structural Lows
The mining profitability collapse has lasted for four months. A JPMorgan report shows that in November, miners' average daily block reward income was only $41,400/EH/s, down 14% month-on-month and 20% year-on-year. The current hash price is stable in the $38.3–$39.44/PH/s range, only slightly above the $40/PH/s breakeven line. Once it falls below this line, a large number of miners will have to shut down to avoid losses.
Although the total network hash rate fell slightly by 1% in November to 1,074 EH/s, it is expected to continue rising above 1,100 EH/s in December, leading to intensified competition and severe dilution of revenue per unit of hash rate. TheMinerMag points out that this is not a short-term fluctuation, but a structural low. Mining difficulty in December is expected to rise to 150.56 trillion, further squeezing profit margins. Small miners' daily income per TH/s is only $0.0334, the lowest since 2023. Publicly listed mining companies such as CleanSpark recently decided to fully repay in advance the credit line obtained from Coinbase using bitcoin as collateral. This move symbolizes that the miner community has generally shifted towards deleveraging, prioritizing cash retention and improving liquidity, rather than continuing aggressive operational expansion.
Bitcoin Price Correction Amplifies Mining Pressure
Bitcoin fell further from the November high of $110K to a low of $83K in early December, then rebounded to the $92.9K range. The approximately 18% price drop directly eroded miners' revenues, as mining rewards are tied to the BTC price. The payback period for new-generation mining machines has exceeded 1,000 days, while there are only about 850 days left until the next halving (expected in 2028), meaning most miners will struggle to break even before the halving.
The industry's balance sheets are reacting to the deteriorating environment. In November, the total market value of publicly listed mining companies evaporated by 16%, dropping to $59 billion. Many miners are trying to diversify their income by shifting to AI/HPC high-performance computing, but in the short term, they are still heavily dependent on the price of bitcoin.
If Miners Sell Bitcoin on a Large Scale
The profit crisis may force miners to accelerate the sale of their holdings, putting even greater downward pressure on prices. On November 6, miners sold 1,898 BTC at an average price of $102,600, and even a miner wallet dormant for 14 years transferred 150 BTC, further increasing market supply pressure.
Historically, miner sell-offs have often amplified price declines. Currently, financing rates have turned negative, and bearish sentiment in the market is rising. If the selling wave continues, bitcoin may once again test the $83,000 support, forming a vicious cycle of "price decline → worsening profitability → more selling."
Mining Stocks Under Heavy Pressure, Rebound Fails to Mask Fundamental Crisis
Since mid-October, mining sector stock prices have collectively plunged:
- MARA Holdings (MARA) fell 50% from its high, closing at $11.91;
- CleanSpark (CLSK) fell 37%, closing at $13.70;
- Riot Platforms (RIOT) fell 32%, closing at $15.22;
- HIVE Digital Technologies (HIVE) saw the largest drop of 54%, closing at $3.16.
Bitcoin mining is experiencing its most challenging period in 15 years, with profits hitting historic lows that may force miners to continue selling bitcoin, potentially driving prices further down. As difficulty continues to rise and the next halving approaches, miners must significantly improve efficiency or diversify their businesses, or more machines will be forced offline. This round of adjustment is not a short-term fluctuation, but a profound structural challenge. Investors should closely monitor miner wallet activity and the intensity of sell-offs to assess the subsequent downside risk for bitcoin.
