2026 predictions: The year the future stops asking for permission | Opinion

The pace of technological change accelerated in 2025, and the data is clear that we’re moving from experimentation to deployment across several critical domains. Tokenized real-world assets exploded from $8.6 billion to $30 billion in 2025, with institutional adoption from players like BlackRock signaling a broader change in financial infrastructure. Agentic AI moved out of pilot phases and into enterprise operations. 

Meanwhile, AI-powered fraud is becoming more damaging, with deepfake attacks causing over $200 million in reported losses in Q1 2025 alone. These are all signals that core infrastructure, risk models, and business processes are being reshaped. Eleven predictions follow based on these observable trends.

1. Financial infrastructure tokenization becomes mainstream

Tokenization of real-world assets has officially crossed the threshold from experimentation to infrastructure. The total value of tokenized RWAs hit $30 billion by mid-2025, and that number is expected to increase 5x to $150 billion in 2026.

Forecasts suggest we are still early in this wave, and analysts are racing to model the growth curve.

2. AI-powered cybercrime explodes 

In 2026, losses from AI-driven attacks will soar beyond $10 billion globally. Deepfake incidents surged 1,740% in North America between 2022 and 2023.

The attack surface has expanded: from voice cloning to deepfakes and multimodal attacks that synchronize voice, video, and forged documents. Attackers are orchestrating campaigns targeting the one vulnerability that can’t be patched: human trust.

3. Agentic AI systems go pro

The agentic AI market is moving from buzzword to backbone. It grew from $5.2 billion in 2024 to $7 billion by mid-2025. Adoption is accelerating rapidly, with 85% of enterprises now deploying AI agents in at least one workflow.

The productivity delta will be dramatic in 2026: early adopters are already seeing up to 86% reductions in time required for complex workflows.

4. Compute capacity becomes strategic

In 2026, chips and energy are THE strategic assets. Just as oil defined power in the 20th century, computing capacity now determines leadership in finance, defense, AI, and biotech. Nations are racing to secure chip supply and energy infrastructure. 

Data center energy demand is expected to increase, pushing facilities to rural regions with access to cheap land and high-voltage power. Investments in renewables, nuclear, and AI-optimized grid infrastructure are ramping up.

As a result, the frontier is expanding. Google’s Project Suncatcher is exploring space-based compute, using solar-powered satellites with TPUs and optical links. 

5. AI-generated content is the new mainstream

By late 2026, most of what you see, read, or hear online will be machine-generated.  

The distinction between human and algorithmic creativity will blur. AI will begin to shape culture, influence taste, redirect creative capital, and determine what becomes popular. 

The silver lining may just be that as synthetic media floods the ecosystem, a new countertrend may emerge: growing demand for authentic human-crafted content and luxury creative work. In a world of infinite AI, scarcity may shift back to what is human.

6. China builds a parallel tech ecosystem

China is building a full-stack digital infrastructure and exporting it. Through BRICS, Belt and Road, and strategic partnerships, China is offering an alternative to the Western tech ecosystem. 

In 2026, the global tech landscape will continue to split. Countries will face pressure to choose between the U.S.-led ecosystem and China’s parallel system.

China holds a dominant position in rare earths, producing over 69 percent of global supply and refining nearly 90 percent. These materials are critical to chips, magnets, and defense systems. At the same time, China is ramping up AI investments with government backing, optimizing manufacturing through “dark factory” automation, and building LLMs on domestic hardware. 

7. Robots go to work

Robotics will move from pilot programs to widespread deployment in 2026. Companies like Tesla are scaling operations driven by labor shortages and automation economics. Amazon is already restructuring jobs around automation, while new U.S. factories increasingly rely on machines over people. 

This shift raises urgent questions about workforce roles, relevant skills, and wealth distribution when labor no longer drives productivity.

8. Defense tech transforms warfare

Technology is now the center of power. Autonomous drones, AI decision systems, swarming tactics, directed-energy weapons, and more are moving from labs to deployment. Global defense budgets in 2026 will be rewritten.

Software eats tanks. The battlefield becomes code. Nations that master autonomous systems will dictate terms to those still relying on legacy hardware. 

9. Quantum remains early, but strategic

Quantum computing will grow to around $1.5-2 billion in 2026. The technology is advancing, but we’re still before the inflection point. Most access will be via the cloud. Real gains remain limited to specialized use cases.

But governments and strategics are investing heavily because the stakes are existential. The nation that achieves quantum supremacy first will break encryption, optimize logistics, and potentially dominate computational supremacy for decades.  

10.  Bitcoin touches $200,000

On the macro front, Bitcoin (BTC) will hit $200,000 at least once in 2026. The drivers are clear:

• Institutional adoption is accelerating: Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold over $150 billion in assets, with BlackRock’s holdings topping $84 billion.
• Inflation pressures persist despite central bank efforts.
• Regulatory clarity is improving in major jurisdictions.
• Government backing is solidifying (notably in the U.S. under the new administration).

Will it stay there? Unlikely. Volatility is Bitcoin’s nature. Will it happen? Yes. 

11.  The AI bubble bursts…but that’s good

Valuations in the AI sector are clearly overheated. Too many companies are little more than thin wrappers around APIs, with no real defensible moat. Many will collapse, but that’s exactly how technological revolutions unfold.

The dot-com crash wiped out thousands of companies, but it also cleared the path for Amazon, Google, and the infrastructure of modern e-commerce. The same will happen with AI. Bubbles fuel infrastructure, drive adoption, flush out weak players, and force discipline. 

Final thought: Force fields and futures

In Investing in Revolutions, I introduced force-field factors, including social, economic, regulatory, and infrastructural forces that determine whether a technology thrives or flops. 

In 2026, those forces converge. Tokenization, AI, robotics, and geopolitics are all part of one system now. They feed, constrain, and accelerate each other. Understanding them in isolation is like analyzing a chess game by studying one piece.