Analysis: The recent correlation between cryptocurrencies and broader risk assets has strengthened, reinforcing the bullish outlook at the beginning of the year.

PANews, January 5th – Singapore-based crypto investment firm QCP Capital analyzed that after a period of narrow-range consolidation for most of December, cryptocurrencies broke upwards during the Asian morning session, with Bitcoin and Ethereum breaking through the $92,000 and $3,100 levels respectively. This rally coincided with a strengthening stock market and weakening oil prices following US actions that led to the detention of Venezuelan President Maduro. The recent increased correlation between cryptocurrencies and broader risk assets may signal a shift in market dynamics and a strengthening of the bullish narrative for the new year—especially as year-end tax-loss selling disruptions have ended and new crypto legislation is about to be introduced.

Although these narratives may have already been reflected to a considerable extent in market prices, Washington’s sudden move against Venezuela could still serve as a near-term catalyst for Bitcoin. In addition to the deflationary effect brought by falling oil prices, market rumors have resurfaced, suggesting that Venezuela may control a sizable “shadow” Bitcoin reserve, possibly comparable to Strategy’s holdings. These claims have not yet been confirmed. If true, Venezuela would become the largest sovereign Bitcoin holder. Furthermore, if the US includes any potentially confiscated Bitcoin in its strategic reserves, it would reduce the likelihood of forced selling.

In the options market, positioning is turning more positive: put skew across all maturities has declined, and since last week, over 3,000 call options with a $100,000 strike expiring on January 30, 2026, have been bought. There is also significant demand for upside exposure via straddle strategies, reflecting some short covering during Bitcoin’s rally. If spot prices continue to rise, it could trigger a gamma-driven acceleration. However, recent US trading sessions have often seen gains retraced, so caution is still warranted until this pattern is broken.