Analysis: The main reason for Bitcoin's rise is not the Venezuela incident, but rather driven by institutional adoption, shifts in crypto regulation, and a rebound in risk appetite.

ChainCatcher News, Bitwise Head of Research Ryan Rasmussen stated in a post, "Wall Street's explanation for bitcoin's approximately 5% rise is: Venezuela's oil reserves were released, oil prices fell, inflation dropped, and interest rates declined, leading to bitcoin's increase. However, this logic is incorrect. In the short term, the probability of a rate cut has remained basically unchanged compared to last week. Even looking ahead to the end of 2026, after Maduro's arrest, expectations for rate cuts remain unchanged. Since Maduro's arrest, the factors driving bitcoin's price up by more than 5% are as follows:

· Institutional adoption (bullish for bitcoin): Since the launch of spot bitcoin ETFs in 2024, institutional funds have continued to flow into the crypto market, and this trend is accelerating. With major platforms such as Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Merrill (under Bank of America) beginning to allocate assets (for example, on January 2, there was a net inflow of about $500 million into bitcoin ETFs in a single day), institutional participation is increasing significantly.

· Shift in crypto regulation (bullish for bitcoin): As crypto-friendly regulatory directions gradually become established after the 2024 election, the crypto industry will begin to truly feel the benefits brought by this policy shift. Wall Street institutions, including wealth management firms, university endowments, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds, are starting to allocate bitcoin more seriously and systematically.

· Optimism around AI (bullish for risk assets): Market concerns about an AI bubble are easing. Investor sentiment is turning optimistic, and capital is flowing back into risk-on assets such as tech stocks and bitcoin.

· Unchanged rate cut expectations (bullish for risk assets): Maduro's arrest has not substantively changed short-term rate cut expectations, nor does it mean that quantitative easing (QE) has been ruled out—QE is just beginning. The market previously, and still now, expects a 50 basis point (or even more) rate cut in 2026. The Venezuela incident this weekend had some impact on bitcoin, but it is not the main reason for bitcoin's approximately 5% rise.