When will the preliminary German HICP figures be released and what potential impact might they have on the EUR/USD exchange rate?

Preview of Germany’s Flash HICP Data

Today at 13:00 GMT, Germany will release its preliminary Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) figures for December.

The Federal Statistics Office is anticipated to report that annual HICP inflation slowed to 2.2% in December, down from 2.6% in November. On a monthly basis, prices are forecast to have increased by 0.4%, rebounding from a 0.5% decline in the previous month.

Earlier today, inflation reports from four German states—Brandenburg, Hesse, Saxony, and North Rhine-Westphalia—indicated that year-over-year CPI growth was moderate, while monthly inflation picked up pace.

Additional CPI data from Bavaria and Baden-Württemberg will be released on Wednesday. That same day, Eurostat is scheduled to publish the preliminary HICP data for the Eurozone for December.

Given Germany’s status as the largest economy in the Eurozone by population and trade, today’s flash HICP figures are likely to play a pivotal role in shaping market expectations for the European Central Bank’s monetary policy outlook.

Potential Impact on EUR/USD

In the lead-up to the German HICP announcement, the EUR/USD pair is trading 0.11% lower, hovering near 1.1717. On the four-hour chart, the currency pair remains below the 20-period Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is trending downward at 1.1726 and currently limits any short-term rallies. The steady decline of the 20-EMA suggests a continued bearish bias in the near term.

Recent price action has been pressured by a Double Top pattern, indicating the formation of an intermediate peak.

The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at a neutral 46, reflecting weakening upward momentum.

• If the pair stays below the declining average, sellers may drive prices down toward the December 2025 low near 1.1600.
• Conversely, a decisive close above the December 16 high of 1.1804 could pave the way for further advances toward the September 17, 2025 high at 1.1919.

(This technical analysis was generated with the assistance of AI tools.)