Start-of-year rebound loses momentum: Crypto Daybook Americas

Cryptocurrency Market Overview

By Omkar Godbole (All times ET unless noted)

Leading digital assets such as bitcoin (BTC), XRP, and solana (SOL) have each declined by over 1.5% in the last day. All 16 of CoinDesk’s sector indexes are showing losses, with the DeFi Select Index experiencing the steepest drop at 3.6%.

This recent downturn has prompted some market observers to question whether the strong start to the year was fueled by genuine investor conviction or simply seasonal trends like portfolio rebalancing. Insights may be gleaned from U.S.-listed spot bitcoin ETFs, which attracted more than $1 billion in inflows during the first two sessions of 2026, but then saw $243 million in outflows on Tuesday, according to SoSoValue.

According to Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com, “The recent pullback highlights the ongoing fragility of the rally, with prices still highly responsive to liquidity changes and seasonal effects rather than solid buying conviction.”

Hasn noted that while there have been tentative signs of improved liquidity supporting recent gains, these signals remain inconsistent, which has contributed to the loss of upward momentum.

Another point of concern for bullish investors is the Coinbase Premium, an indicator of U.S. investor demand. Data from Coinglass shows this premium—measuring the price gap between BTC on Coinbase and Binance—remains negative. This suggests that American investors have yet to fully participate in the rally, despite analysts noting that tax-motivated selling, which weighed on BTC in December, has subsided.

Nevertheless, there are positive developments for bulls, particularly in the derivatives market. Open interest in crypto futures has climbed to its highest level in nearly two months, signaling renewed risk appetite among investors.

Funding rates for perpetual futures tied to cryptocurrencies are also improving, which is another encouraging sign.

Glassnode commented, “Historically, sustained bull markets are often accompanied by funding rates consistently above approximately 0.01%. Current conditions are supportive, but not yet conclusive.”

Elsewhere, yields on long-term Japanese government bonds have reached record highs amid ongoing fiscal concerns, sparking debate on social media about potential impacts on risk assets like BTC. Rising yields in Japan could influence global markets, as previously discussed by CoinDesk.

Bitcoin’s correlation with the Japanese yen has grown stronger, meaning fluctuations in Japan’s markets could increasingly affect the cryptocurrency. Upcoming releases of the ADP Employment report and ISM non-manufacturing data could further contribute to market volatility.

Further Reading

Key Events to Watch

• Crypto
  • Jan. 7: Ethereum’s second “Blob Parameter Only” (BPO-2) hard fork goes live, increasing the blob target to 14 and the maximum to 21 per block, enhancing data capacity for rollups as part of the Fusaka scaling plan.
• Macro
  • Jan. 7, 8:15 a.m.: December ADP Employment Change (Estimate: 45K)
  • Jan. 7, 10 a.m.: December ISM Services PMI (Estimate: 52.3)
  • Jan. 7, 10 a.m.: November JOLTS report (Job Openings Estimate: 7.64M; Previous Job Quits: 2.941M)
• Earnings (FactSet estimates)
  • No major earnings reports scheduled.

Upcoming Token Events

• Governance Votes & Calls
  • Jan. 7: Jupiter will host a Planetary Call following the launch of its JupUSD stablecoin.
  • Jan. 7: Axie Infinity will hold its first Lunacian Lounge of 2026.
  • Jan. 7: Gnosis will host a community AMA on X, YouTube, and Discord.
• Unlocks
  • No significant unlocks scheduled.
• Token Launches
  • Jan. 7: Axie Infinity SLP emissions in Origins conclude.
  • Jan. 7: Binance Wallet’s 44th token generation event for ZenChain (ZTC) takes place.

Conferences

• Day 1 of 2: BUIDL Europe 2026 (Lisbon, Portugal)

Market Performance Snapshot

• BTC: Down 1.66% since 4 p.m. ET Tuesday, now at $91,677.51 (24hr change: -1.77%)
• ETH: Down 2.26% at $3,200.70 (24hr change: -0.27%)
• CoinDesk 20: Down 1.97% at 2,981.11 (24hr change: -2.08%)
• Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate: Up 3 basis points to 2.88%
• BTC funding rate: 0.0084% (annualized: 9.175%) on Binance

CoinDesk 20 members’ performance

• DXY: Unchanged at 98.55
• Gold futures: Down 0.19% at $4,473.50
• Silver futures: Down 1.53% at $79.30
• Nikkei 225: Closed down 1.06% at 51,961.98
• Hang Seng: Closed down 0.94% at 26,458.95
• FTSE 100: Down 0.53% at 10,069.29
• Euro Stoxx 50: Down 0.27% at 5,915.51
• DJIA: Closed up 0.99% at 49,462.08
• S&P 500: Closed up 0.62% at 6,944.82
• Nasdaq Composite: Closed up 0.65% at 23,547.17
• S&P/TSX Composite: Closed up 0.58% at 32,407.00
• S&P 40 Latin America: Closed up 1.02% at 3,255.61
• U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate: Up 1 basis point to 4.18%
• E-mini S&P 500 futures: Down 0.14% at 6,978.25
• E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures: Down 0.28% at 25,748.75
• E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures: Unchanged at 49,744.00

Bitcoin Metrics

• BTC Market Share: 58.8% (-0.15%)
• ETH/BTC Ratio: 0.03502 (-0.41%)
• Hashrate (7-day average): 1,043 EH/s
• Hashprice (spot): $39.14
• Total transaction fees: 2.76 BTC / $258,065
• CME Futures Open Interest: 110,835 BTC
• BTC in gold terms: 20.5 ounces
• BTC vs. gold market cap: 6.15%

Technical Outlook

BTC's candlestick chart (TradingView)

• The chart displays daily price movements for BTC using candlesticks.
• The recovery has stalled at a horizontal resistance level established by the December 9 high of 94,635.
• A breakout above this resistance could pave the way for a move toward $100,000.

Crypto-Related Equities

• Coinbase Global (COIN): Closed Tuesday at $250.56 (-1.71%), pre-market at $248.88 (-0.67%)
• Circle Internet (CRCL): Closed at $84.85 (+0.06%), pre-market at $83.91 (-1.11%)
• Galaxy Digital (GLXY): Closed at $26.08 (-0.84%), pre-market at $25.96 (-0.46%)
• Bullish (BLSH): Closed at $41.25 (-0.55%), pre-market at $40.72 (-1.28%)
• MARA Holdings (MARA): Closed at $10.31 (-2.64%), pre-market at $10.24 (-0.68%)
• Riot Platforms (RIOT): Closed at $14.98 (+1.28%), pre-market at $14.88 (-0.67%)
• Core Scientific (CORZ): Closed at $16.79 (+0.36%), unchanged pre-market
• CleanSpark (CLSK): Closed at $11.99 (-2.52%), pre-market at $11.84 (-1.25%)
• CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): Closed at $44.99 (-2.11%)
• Exodus Movement (EXOD): Closed at $15.92 (+1.60%)

Crypto Treasury Companies

• Strategy (MSTR): Closed at $157.97 (-4.10%), pre-market at $163.80 (+3.69%)
• Semler Scientific (SMLR): Closed at $21.26 (+0.95%)
• SharpLink Gaming (SBET): Closed at $10.34 (+0.68%), pre-market at $10.16 (-1.74%)
• Upexi (UPXI): Closed at $2.28 (+0.44%), pre-market at $2.31 (+1.32%)
• Lite Strategy (LITS): Closed at $1.54 (+0.65%)

ETF Activity

Spot BTC ETFs

• Net daily flows: -$243.2 million
• Total net flows: $57.52 billion
• Aggregate BTC holdings: Approximately 1.31 million

Spot ETH ETFs

• Net daily flows: $114.7 million
• Total net flows: $12.8 billion
• Aggregate ETH holdings: Approximately 6.16 million

Source: Farside Investors

Overnight Highlights

• Bitcoin and the Japanese yen are moving together like never before (CoinDesk): The relationship has intensified as the yen’s weakness, driven by Japan’s debt and interest rate policies, increasingly shapes global risk sentiment and bitcoin trading.
• Venezuela to give U.S. up to 50 million barrels of oil, Trump says (The Wall Street Journal): The plan would send heavy crude—about 15% of Venezuela’s annual output—to U.S. refineries, with proceeds intended to benefit both countries’ populations.
• Crypto traders can now take leveraged bets on silver via Binance Futures (CoinDesk): The new contract allows up to 50x leverage, is settled in USDT, and enables positions as small as $5, making silver derivatives more accessible.
• Barclays invests in stablecoin settlement firm as tokenized infrastructure advances (CoinDesk): Ubyx is developing a clearing system for tokenized bank deposits and regulated stablecoins to move between institutions at par, addressing a key challenge in blockchain payments.
• Lloyds Bank completes UK’s first gilt purchase using tokenized deposits (CoinDesk): The transaction used blockchain-based deposits to instantly settle government bond trades, while maintaining interest-bearing status and deposit insurance protection.