Analysis: January May Become a New Turning Point in Bitcoin's Four-Year Cycle, with Historical Patterns Showing Structural Divergence

According to Odaily, the validity of bitcoin’s four-year cycle has once again become a major topic within the ecosystem. Some believe that the four-year cycle should not continue until 2026, as ETFs have already absorbed $57 billion in capital inflows. However, the opposing view argues that the four-year cycle remains intact so far, and that there are historical coincidences in timing. For example, the most recent local bottom for bitcoin occurred on November 21, 2025, with a price of $80,524, while the previous cycle’s low was on November 21, 2022, at $15,460—exactly the same date. Currently, the market’s attention has shifted to January 2026, when a U.S. crypto market structure bill is scheduled for a hearing on January 15. This event is seen as a potential key turning point for the current bitcoin cycle.