Bitcoin’s price patterns echo as similar November bottoms set the stage for a recognizable January scenario

Is the Four-Year Bitcoin Cycle Still Relevant?

One of the most debated topics in the bitcoin community is whether the well-known four-year cycle continues to hold true.

This cycle describes a repeating trend in bitcoin’s price movements, historically tied to the halving events. Typically, these cycles feature periods of rapid price growth followed by significant corrections, with each cycle lasting about four years from one peak to the next.

There are several reasons to believe the four-year cycle might not extend into 2026. For instance, U.S. exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen $57 billion in inflows, and Strategy (MSTR) has become a consistent buyer. Meanwhile, long-term holders have been selling bitcoin at record levels above $100,000. Additionally, 2025 saw a decline in prices, even though the cycle would have predicted a dramatic surge.

On the other hand, some argue that the four-year rhythm remains unbroken. After the halving in April 2024—which reduced the reward for miners and slowed new bitcoin creation—bitcoin reached a peak of $126,000 in October 2025. This followed a strong rally from the cycle’s low of $15,500, set during the FTX collapse in November 2022.

Timing has added further intrigue. Bitcoin’s most recent local low occurred on November 21, 2025, at $80,524—the same calendar date as the previous cycle’s bottom of $15,460 on November 21, 2022.

January has also been a pivotal month in recent cycles. In January 2023, bitcoin hit a local high just under $25,000 before dropping below $20,000 in March during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis. January 2024 saw the introduction of U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs, after which bitcoin reached its yearly low at the end of the month, just below $40,000. In January 2025, coinciding with President Donald Trump’s inauguration, bitcoin reached another local peak near $110,000.

Looking ahead, January 2026 is drawing attention. With a U.S. crypto market structure bill set for a markup hearing on January 15, many are wondering if this will be another turning point—potentially marking either a new high or a bottom in the ongoing bitcoin cycle.

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