Will Nvidia Alpamayo Challenge Tesla FSD's Position? Morgan Stanley: Remains Optimistic About Tesla's Advantage, Still Years Ahead of Competitors

Glonghui, January 9th｜Morgan Stanley's research report points out that Nvidia's recent aggressive push into physical AI is raising new questions in the market about whether and how quickly traditional automakers can close the gap with Tesla in autonomous driving. In its keynote speech at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES), Nvidia put autonomous vehicles and humanoid robots center stage, with the brand-new Alpamayo system becoming one of the biggest highlights. Morgan Stanley notes that this technology stack aims to accelerate OEMs toward scalable, reasoning-capable autonomous driving, with the potential to reshape the competitive landscape of driver assistance and self-driving systems. However, Morgan Stanley reiterates that Tesla still leads its competitors by several years in autonomous driving, citing its vertical integration, massive data advantage, economies of scale, and cost benefits. The report emphasizes that Nvidia's technological advancements have not fundamentally changed the bank's core view on Tesla. Its baseline scenario assumes that the entire industry will widely adopt technology equivalent to Tesla's L2-level and above FSD (Full Self-Driving) over the next decade. While Nvidia provides automakers with a more capital-efficient entry point toward advanced autonomous driving, truly developing and integrating a complete self-driving technology stack still takes years, not months.