Bitunix Analyst: Supreme Court Set to Issue Opinion on Trump Tariffs Legitimacy, Policy Risk or Global Asset Pricing Reshaping

BlockBeats News, January 9: The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to make a crucial ruling on the legality of the global tariffs implemented by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). If ruled unconstitutional, the related tariff system may be overturned, potentially triggering over a hundred billion U.S. dollars in import tax refunds, causing a substantial impact on the U.S. fiscal, inflation structure, and global trade order.

The market's focus is on whether the president is allowed to bypass Congress to exercise the power to impose taxes in the name of "national emergency." Lower courts have previously ruled that this practice constitutes executive overreach, and the Supreme Court has also shown a reserved stance during oral arguments. Market predictions indicate that the probability of tariffs being overturned is now above seventy percent, and policy uncertainty is rapidly escalating.

On a macro level, if the tariffs fail, the effective U.S. import tax rate will decrease, relieving inflation pressure and corporate costs. However, it may also widen the deficit, strengthen the market's expectation of an early shift to easing by the Federal Reserve. Conversely, if the tariffs are maintained, they may provide short-term support for the U.S. dollar, but still face structural pressure on consumption and growth in the medium term.

Bitunix Analyst: Regardless of the outcome, this is not a singular policy event but a significant test of "policy predictability." The cryptocurrency market is highly sensitive to such macro variables. The tariff ruling will directly affect inflation expectations, the trend of the U.S. dollar, and global risk appetite, thereby amplifying the volatility of Bitcoin and mainstream crypto assets.