Institutions: Under pressure from AI and tariffs, U.S. nonfarm payroll growth in December is expected to be weak

PANews, January 9 – According to Jinse Finance, institutional analysis indicates that due to companies remaining cautious about hiring as a result of increased import tariffs and investments in artificial intelligence, U.S. employment growth in December may slow down. However, the unemployment rate is expected to fall to 4.5%, which could support market expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates unchanged this month. The non-farm payroll report to be released tonight is expected to show that the U.S. labor market remains in what economists and policymakers call a “no hiring, no firing” mode. This will also confirm that the U.S. economy is currently in a phase of jobless expansion. In the third quarter of last year, economic growth and worker productivity surged significantly, partly attributed to a sharp increase in AI spending. Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist at BMO Capital Markets, stated: “This is not entirely due to weak demand, as the economy does not appear to be performing poorly, but companies are very cautious about hiring new employees. This may be related to a desire to control costs, perhaps due to tariff pressures, or because many companies believe that AI-driven automation will lead to productivity gains.”