Fidelity Global Macro Director: Skeptical of the "End of Four-Year Cycle" Theory for Bitcoin, $65,000 Will Be the Trend Bottom

BlockBeats News, January 10, Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, stated in a post that the current trend of bitcoin is closer to the S-curve of the internet rather than a power-law curve. Many bitcoin supporters claim that the four-year cycle has ended and a new structural upward wave is about to begin. I am skeptical about this—not because I doubt the diminishing influence of the halving cycle (which I agree with), but because I question the claim that bear markets will no longer occur. Currently, the bottom line for bitcoin is $65,000 (the previous high), while the power-law trend line shows the bottom line at $45,000.

Although there is still some distance to the target price, if bitcoin enters a consolidation phase in the coming year, the power-law trend line may get closer to $65,000 and could become the life-or-death line for bitcoin. But this might (or might not) happen in the future (or within the next year).