Polymarket data shows the probability of an attack on Iran by the end of January in the US has risen to 46%
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On January 11, according to Polymarket data, the probability of a "U.S. strike on Iran before the end of January" has risen to 46%, while the probability of a "strike on Iran before the end of March" has increased to 62%. This morning's news indicates that U.S. President Trump has received a briefing on strike options against Iran, but has not yet made a final decision. Meanwhile, the Pentagon Pizza Index saw a significant surge last night and this morning.
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