an exchange DeepThink: Job Data Emerges as Key Variable Early in the Year, Crypto Market Remains Cautious

BlockBeats News, January 5th. An exchange DeepThink columnist and an exchange Research researcher Chloe stated that US employment and economic data are once again becoming core variables affecting market expectations, and their performance will directly influence the pace of the Fed's next rate cut. The minutes of the December Fed meeting showed that some officials were cautious about a rapid rate cut. In addition, with third-quarter GDP exceeding expectations, the market has largely ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in January. Currently, interest rate futures indicate that the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in March is close to 50%.

Chloe pointed out that the above expectations are based on the premise that the labor market has not shown significant deterioration. The December non-farm payroll data released this week, especially whether the November data has been revised downward, will be a key observation point. At the same time, the ISM manufacturing and services PMI will also provide references for the economic and inflation trends.

In this context, the overall cryptocurrency market is still in a wait-and-see stage. Bitcoin is fluctuating at a high level, lacking a clear direction. Derivative data shows that option implied volatility has fallen, and put options are maintaining a certain premium, reflecting a market that is more defensive rather than actively betting on an increase. Chloe believes that if employment data significantly weakens, the expectation of a rate cut may be reinforced; if the data is stronger, the market may continue its oscillation pattern.