CPI Showdown: December Inflation May See a "Corrective Rebound," Extreme Value Risks Need Attention

BlockBeats News, January 12 — The market generally expects that the US CPI for December may show a temporary rebound (data to be released this Tuesday at 21:30), mainly due to the statistical correction effect after the Bureau of Labor Statistics survey returned to normal. This does not necessarily mean a structural deterioration of inflation again.

The release dates of the November Nonfarm Payrolls and CPI were close. Nonfarm data showed that the US labor market continued to cool, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% (4.573% before rounding), the highest in nearly four years. However, due to the lingering effects of the government shutdown, the reliability of the data has been questioned, and it has not significantly strengthened market expectations for an early Fed rate cut.

Interest rate futures show that the market generally expects rates to remain unchanged at the January meeting, with the first rate cut possibly occurring in March, April, or June, but none of these have formed a consensus pricing above 50%, indicating that the path remains highly uncertain. The mainstream expectations for this CPI are:

Overall CPI YoY: a slight rebound from 3.0% to 3.1%
Core CPI YoY: remains at 3.0%

Three scenario projections:
1. In line with expectations: Limited impact on risk assets, market focuses on reactions at key technical levels.
2. Significantly above expectations (especially core CPI): Concerns about sticky inflation rise, which may suppress risk appetite in the short term.
3. Unexpected sharp decline (low probability): May resonate with weakening employment, strengthen easing expectations, and benefit risk assets.

The December CPI may become a short-term market volatility amplifier, and special attention should be paid to the impact of "extreme readings" on interest rate expectations and asset pricing.