Trump warns he may block Exxon from entering Venezuela, calling the company 'too clever,' after the CEO highlights challenges in the 'uninvestable' sector

Exxon Mobil’s CEO Challenges Trump’s Push for Venezuelan Oil Investment

While many oil industry leaders offered enthusiastic support to President Trump during a White House meeting, Darren Woods, CEO of Exxon Mobil, took a different stance. Woods candidly described Venezuela’s oil sector as “uninvestable” in its current state, emphasizing that sweeping changes are necessary before any significant financial commitment could be considered to revive the country’s struggling oil industry.

Just two days after Woods’ remarks, a visibly displeased Trump told reporters on January 11 that he would likely “keep Exxon out” of Venezuela, expressing his dissatisfaction with the company’s cautious approach. “They’re playing too cute,” Trump commented.

Woods, who has led Exxon since 2017 after succeeding Rex Tillerson, is known for his measured yet direct leadership style. He has become a prominent voice in the oil sector, especially as the head of the world’s largest oil company.

However, Woods’ reluctance to rush into Venezuela has put him at odds with Trump, who is eager for American oil giants to inject over $100 billion into the Venezuelan oil market—and to do so swiftly.

“No one else spoke up, but Darren did, and he did so eloquently,” observed Jim Wicklund, a seasoned oil analyst and managing director at PPHB. Wicklund suggested that Exxon’s stock could have suffered if Woods had made hasty promises regarding Venezuela.

Wicklund further explained, “The real issue for Trump is that the industry feels no urgency to re-enter Venezuela. Unless profitability can be guaranteed—which isn’t possible—there’s little incentive. Even with improved terms, the political risks far outweigh any potential benefits.”

He added, “The U.S. doesn’t need Venezuelan oil right now. Increasing Venezuelan output would only hurt other producers, including those in the U.S., because the market is already oversupplied.”

Despite this, Trump is pushing for increased oil production to help lower fuel prices, a move he hopes will benefit him in the upcoming midterm elections.

Both Exxon and ConocoPhillips lost billions when their Venezuelan assets were seized by the government in 2007. Although Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves, its production has plummeted to a third of its early-2000s levels due to mismanagement, labor unrest, and U.S. sanctions.

Trump has repeatedly cited the 2007 expropriations as justification for the dramatic military action and arrest of Nicolás Maduro on January 3, calling it the largest theft in U.S. history.

On January 9, Trump gathered a group of top oil executives at the White House to discuss plans for investing in and revitalizing Venezuela’s oil sector.

Exxon’s Cautious Approach Slows Trump’s Ambitions

Among all the executives, Woods was the most reserved, dampening Trump’s hopes for rapid investment. While Woods agreed to send a technical team to Venezuela within two weeks to evaluate the situation, he made it clear that any substantial financial decisions would require much more time.

“The key questions are: How secure are the financial protections? What are the terms? What legal and commercial frameworks are in place?” Woods explained. “All these factors must be established before deciding on multi-billion-dollar investments that will span decades.”

Exxon declined to comment further on January 12, and the White House also withheld additional statements.

Industry Optimism Meets Harsh Realities

Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, noted that most oil executives were expected to be optimistic, and they delivered—except for Woods. “If you wanted a realistic perspective, Exxon provided it,” Pickering remarked.

According to research from Rystad Energy, doubling Venezuela’s current oil production would likely take until 2030 and require around $110 billion. Restoring output to year-2000 levels would take even longer and cost closer to $185 billion.

Wicklund pointed out that Exxon has recently achieved significant success offshore in Guyana, Venezuela’s neighbor to the south, making continued investment there more attractive than returning to Venezuela.

“Given the choice between investing in Guyana, Brazil, the Permian Basin, or spending $20 billion in Venezuela for a modest increase in output after years of waiting, Venezuela ranks last,” Wicklund said.

He also highlighted the immense costs of rebuilding Venezuela’s oil infrastructure and the technical challenges of extracting its extra-heavy crude, which requires importing lighter oil to facilitate production.

“You basically have to bring in oil just to get their oil out—it’s almost like dealing with sludge,” Wicklund explained.

While Woods could have softened his message, he did commit to a quick assessment on the ground, though he stopped short of promising investment, Wicklund noted. “He might regret his candor, but it wouldn’t have changed the facts.”

Strategic Leverage in Venezuela

Despite industry hesitation, Trump retains significant influence in Venezuela, as control over the country’s oil resources gives the U.S. leverage over its government.

“America doesn’t need Venezuelan oil, but it’s an effective way to exert control,” Wicklund said. “Leaving the existing players in place ensures stability. They may not like Trump, but he now holds the purse strings. It’s a clever strategy, and the oil market will ultimately dictate the outcome.”