Analysis: Powell Investigation Triggers Bitcoin Spike Above $92,000, But ETF Ongoing Net Outflows and Weak Leveraged Demand Suppress Upside Potential

BlockBeats News, January 13th, according to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin briefly surged above $92,000 on Monday due to a criminal investigation launched by the US Federal Prosecutor against Federal Reserve Chair Powell. Analysts questioned whether the independence of the Federal Reserve could be compromised, potentially benefiting alternative scarce assets like Bitcoin. Despite causing a brief rally, the news, overall, left traders cautious, mainly influenced by ongoing Bitcoin ETF outflows and weak long leverage demand. Despite a recent rebound, Bitcoin is still down around 23% from its October 2025 high, while gold and silver hit all-time highs in 2026. This divergent trend has also led traders to start questioning whether the narrative of "Bitcoin as a digital store of value" is weakening.

The Bitcoin futures annualized premium (i.e., basis) remains at around a 5% neutral-to-bearish level. Generally, when market sentiment truly shifts to bullish, the premium of Bitcoin futures to spot tends to reach or exceed 10%. More importantly, Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $1.38 billion over four consecutive trading days. What is more concerning is that, despite Strategy adding about $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin to its holdings in the past month, the Bitcoin price has still struggled to hold above $94,000 effectively.

Overall, the appeal of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies remains subdued, as evidenced by ETF flows and the soft demand for Bitcoin leveraged long positions. This indicates that the probability of an unexpected surge in the short term, impacting $105,000, is relatively low.