Analysis: Bitcoin's correlation with gold turns negative, historical signals point to at least a 50% increase for BTC

BlockBeats News, January 14, data shows that the 52-week correlation between bitcoin and gold has dropped to zero, marking the first time since mid-2022, and it may turn negative by the end of January. Historically, in similar situations, bitcoin has typically risen by an average of 56% within about two months, corresponding to a price range of approximately $144,000 to $150,000.

Analysis points out that the divergence between bitcoin and gold trends often signals a strong performance for BTC. The current macro environment is also seen as bullish, including a rebound in global liquidity (M2 growth) and the nearing end of the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening (QT). Matt Hougan, Head of Research at Bitwise, stated that a new round of global monetary easing has begun, which may continue to drive bitcoin prices upward through 2026.

From a cyclical structure perspective, analysts believe that bitcoin's trend is replicating the bull market path of 2020–2021, having shifted from a prolonged consolidation phase to the early stage of a "quasi-parabolic" rise. If the historical fractal continues, the target price for BTC in this cycle may point to around $150,000.