Is Bitcoin Poised for a ‘Parabolic Surge’ Similar to Gold? Experts Share Their Insights

Bitcoin ETFs Mirror Gold’s Historic Surge Pattern

Exchange-traded funds for Bitcoin may be replicating the same structural trends that set the stage for gold’s dramatic rally in 2025, hinting at the possibility of a significant upward move for the leading cryptocurrency.

This comparison was drawn by Matthew Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, during a podcast conversation with influencer Michael 'Threadguy' Jerome.

Hougan noted, “We’re seeing a similar scenario unfold with Bitcoin as we did with gold, especially after central banks began aggressively purchasing gold in response to sanctions following the Ukraine conflict in 2022.”

From 2022 onward, central banks increased their gold acquisitions from 400 tons to over 1,000 tons annually. This persistent demand absorbed available supply for several years, eventually triggering a dramatic price surge: gold ended 2022 lower, but then climbed 13% in 2023, 27% in 2024, and soared nearly 65% in 2025.

“Gold’s story shows that when sellers are exhausted, prices can accelerate rapidly,” Hougan explained.

He sees a similar dynamic in Bitcoin ETFs, which have consistently purchased more than the total new supply since their inception. “Gold’s trajectory offers a preview of what could happen—if strong buying continues, a parabolic price move for Bitcoin may be on the horizon.”

Key Differences Remain

While many analysts agree that sustained buying can absorb selling pressure and drive prices higher, they caution that Bitcoin’s journey will be shaped by its own unique volatility and market forces.

Tim Sun, a senior researcher at HashKey Group, partially echoed McMillin’s perspective. He told Decrypt, “In general, persistent structural buying is a hallmark of any scarce asset entering a prolonged bull market.”

Yet, Sun emphasized that there are important differences in how these markets operate.

For gold, the main buyers are central banks and sovereign wealth funds seeking protection against currency risk, resulting in low-leverage, long-term investments. In contrast, while Bitcoin ETF investors are also institutional, they tend to treat Bitcoin as a risk asset, leading to much higher leverage and trading activity.

Volatility and Macro Sensitivity

Sun explained, “Due to these differences in capital flows, Bitcoin naturally experiences more volatility than gold. Even if both assets enjoy extended bull markets, their price movements may look very different.”

One major distinction is how each asset responds to broader economic conditions. Gold’s recent rally was driven by concerns over the dollar’s stability and geopolitical tensions. Bitcoin, on the other hand, remains highly reactive to global liquidity trends, meaning that tighter Federal Reserve policies could introduce volatility and disrupt any smooth upward trajectory.

This ongoing debate raises a crucial question for 2026: Will Bitcoin’s ETF-fueled demand follow gold’s scarcity-driven path to a price peak, or will its unique characteristics as a volatile, macro-sensitive asset lead to a different—and potentially more turbulent—route to new highs?

Market Sentiment and Outlook

According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin has risen 1.8% in the last 24 hours, while gold has declined by 0.32% over the same period.