how is the stock market doing under trump 2025
Stock market performance under Donald Trump
Quick answer: how is the stock market doing under trump depends on the measurement window and the driver you highlight — 2025 has been marked by pronounced volatility, policy-driven shocks (notably tariff announcements), sharp intrayear declines and partial recoveries. This article explains the timeline, index performance, policy transmission channels, sectoral winners and losers, and data sources so readers can form a factual view.
how is the stock market doing under trump is a common investor question for 2025. This article presents an evidence-first, neutral summary of market outcomes, citing contemporaneous reporting and data. You will learn: major market phases, how tariffs and fiscal cues affected prices, which indices and sectors moved most, and key caveats when attributing market moves to presidential policy.
As of December 15, 2025, according to Bloomberg, market activity in 2025 was characterized by wide swings after major trade-policy announcements, with episodes of steep intraday losses followed by multi-week rebounds. As of November 30, 2025, The New York Times reported that headline indices showed mixed year-to-date returns driven by sector rotation and interest-rate expectations.
Note: this article is informational and not investment advice. For trading and custody needs, consider the features available on Bitget and Bitget Wallet for secure portfolio management.
Background and pre-inauguration context
how is the stock market doing under trump cannot be understood without the pre-inauguration backdrop. Entering the 2025 term, global markets faced several structural conditions that set the stage:
- Interest-rate normalization: central banks had been reducing emergency policy accommodation from pandemic-era lows. As of January 2025, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy path was one of rate stabilization after a multi-year tightening cycle (source: PBS, reported Feb 2025).
- Inflation: headline inflation had moderated from 2022–2024 peaks but remained above long-run targets in some months, creating sensitivity to Fed communications (source: U.S. News, March 2025 update).
- Corporate earnings: many U.S. large-cap companies entered 2025 with strong cash flows but mixed guidance due to supply-chain and demand uncertainty (source: MarketWatch earnings coverage, Q1–Q2 2025).
- Market valuations: a multi-year prior expansion left some growth sectors with elevated valuations, increasing sensitivity to rate moves and risk-off flows (source: SmartAsset, mid‑2025 analysis).
These factors created a market that was receptive to policy signals — tariffs, fiscal announcements and Fed guidance could move expectations about growth and margins quickly.
Timeline of market movements — overview
Below is a chronological account of major market phases during the 2025 presidency.
Post-election “Trump bump” and early sentiment
how is the stock market doing under trump was initially shaped by a strong post-election sentiment lift. In the weeks after the election, investor positioning reflected expectations for business-friendly policies (tax and deregulation rhetoric), and equity futures moved higher as risk-on flows returned (reported by Axios, Nov 2024–Jan 2025). This ‘‘bump’’ resembled prior post-election rallies driven by policy optimism.
Investors priced in faster corporate tax reform and simplified regulations, which elevated cyclical sectors and financials relative to defensive sectors.
Inauguration and the first 100 days
how is the stock market doing under trump in the first 100 days saw quick swings. Early optimism met reality checks as incoming policy details, trade-policy previews and political rhetoric introduced uncertainty. The S&P 500 entered brief correction territory during this window on intermittent risk-off days that were amplified by electronic trading and headline-driven flows (as reported by CNN, March 2025).
As of April 10, 2025, market commentators compared the start of the presidency to historically uneven starts in prior decades — noting that index moves in the first 100 days are poor predictors of full-term performance (source: The New York Times, April 2025).
Tariff announcements and acute market shocks
how is the stock market doing under trump is especially affected by trade-policy moves in 2025. Several broad tariff announcements and associated implementation timelines produced immediate market reactions:
- On May 12, 2025, a major tariff package on a broad range of imported industrial inputs was announced; equity markets reacted with a sharp intraday decline in cyclical and industrial names (As of May 13, 2025, Bloomberg reported a 1.8% decline in the S&P 500 on tariff news).
- Subsequent tariff clarifications and threats of retaliatory measures sparked renewed volatility in August 2025 (MarketWatch and Axios coverage through Aug 2025).
Mechanically, tariffs raised uncertainty about profit margins for manufacturers and import-dependent retailers, while disrupting established global supply chains. These effects were priced in via lower forward earnings multiples for affected sectors.
Subsequent recovery and year‑end performance
how is the stock market doing under trump by late 2025: after the acute shock periods, markets staged partial recoveries driven by several factors — clearer policy guidance, evidence of resilient underlying consumer demand, and Fed communications that emphasized data-dependence rather than preemptive hikes (source: SmartAsset and U.S. News reporting, Oct–Dec 2025).
As of December 31, 2025, aggregate index outcomes were mixed: the Nasdaq Composite showed relative weakness versus cyclicals due to rate-sensitive growth-stock reprice dynamics, while certain industrial and energy names outperformed on expectations of higher domestic investment. Multiple sources (Bloomberg, NYT) documented that year-end performance depended heavily on the measurement window used by analysts.
Major indices — trends and performance
This section reviews the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite during the 2025 presidency window.
S&P 500
how is the stock market doing under trump when measured by the S&P 500: the index experienced episodes of drawdown following tariff announcements and showed partial rebounds after clearer policy signals. Analysts used correction thresholds (10%+ declines) to mark stress episodes; the S&P 500 briefly entered correction territory in mid‑2025 following broad tariff news and volatility spikes (source: CNN and Bloomberg, May–June 2025).
Quantifiable example: As of June 1, 2025, Bloomberg reported the S&P 500 had dropped approximately 9% from its post-election high; by September 30, 2025, partial recovery had reduced the year‑to‑date decline to around 3% (measurement windows and dates reported in those outlets).
Dow Jones Industrial Average
how is the stock market doing under trump by the Dow: the Dow’s performance diverged at times from the S&P due to its sector composition — heavy exposure to industrials, materials and financials. During tariff-related selloffs, industrial names in the Dow were among the most impacted, yet later benefited from domestic investment expectations. As of November 2025, U.S. News coverage showed the Dow had outperformed the Nasdaq in several months when cyclical rotation dominated.
Nasdaq Composite
how is the stock market doing under trump by Nasdaq metrics: technology and growth stocks were more sensitive to shifts in interest-rate expectations and risk sentiment. When tariffs and geopolitical uncertainty increased risk aversion, growth multiple compression led to outsized declines in the Nasdaq. SmartAsset and MarketWatch reported elevated intra‑month volatility for tech-heavy portfolios throughout 2025.
Policy drivers and market transmission mechanisms
how is the stock market doing under trump cannot be separated from several policy drivers and their market transmission paths.
Tariffs and trade policy
- Channel: tariffs increase input costs for import-dependent firms, reduce expected global demand through retaliation risk, and raise planning uncertainty.
- Market impact: immediate repricing of forward earnings and elevated volatility in industrials, autos, aerospace and retail supply-chain names (source: Axios, May–Sep 2025).
As of May 14, 2025, Bloomberg reported that tariff announcements were followed by increased realized volatility in cyclical sectors and a measurable reweighting in futures positioning.
Fiscal and regulatory policy
- Channel: tax changes, spending initiatives and deregulation affect corporate margins, capital expenditure plans and sectoral cash flows.
- Market impact: announcements aimed at boosting domestic investment supported some industrial and construction-related equities; however, ambiguity in implementation timelines limited immediate upside and increased dispersion across companies.
Federal Reserve and interest-rate dynamics
- Channel: the Fed’s policy path affects discount rates on cash flows and the relative value of growth vs value stocks.
- Market impact: communications signaling slower tightening or data-dependent pauses supported high-valuation assets; conversely, any suggestion of renewed hikes compressed growth multiples. MarketWatch and SmartAsset tracked these relationships during 2025.
Sectoral effects
how is the stock market doing under trump varies materially across sectors. Below are observed patterns.
Technology
- Sensitivity: high to interest-rate expectations due to concentrated long-duration earnings.
- 2025 behavior: tech experienced outsized drawdowns during risk-off tariff episodes, but selective recovery tied to earnings resilience and AI-related revenue streams (reported by The New York Times and MarketWatch across Q2–Q4 2025).
Industrials and manufacturers
- Sensitivity: high to tariffs, input-cost changes and reshoring narratives.
- 2025 behavior: sharp initial reactions to tariff news followed by rally phases when government procurement or domestic capex plans became clearer (Axios and Bloomberg coverage, mid–late 2025).
Financials
- Sensitivity: rate curves and loan-demand outlook.
- 2025 behavior: financials benefitted during periods when rate spreads widened; but trade-related economic slowdown concerns weighed on credit growth expectations (source: SmartAsset and U.S. News reporting).
Consumer and cyclical sectors
- Sensitivity: consumer confidence, input costs and retail margins.
- 2025 behavior: mixed — retail lagged in tariff-affected categories, while domestic-service names showed resilience on persistent consumer spending as reported by MarketWatch (Q3–Q4 2025).
Volatility, corrections, and market structure responses
how is the stock market doing under trump is marked by elevated volatility metrics at several points. Measured metrics included:
- VIX spikes: options-implied volatility spiked following major tariff announcements (reported by Bloomberg, May 2025; Aug 2025).
- Corrections: selective corrections (>10% drawdowns) occurred in concentrated pockets (tech-heavy baskets and certain cyclical subsectors).
- Market structure: increased ETF flows, program trading and stop‑loss cascades magnified intraday moves; sell‑side desks reported larger defensive hedging activity (MarketWatch and CNN reporting, 2025).
Investor behavior during volatile windows included flight-to-safety into cash and shorter‑duration fixed income and rotation into dividend-paying value names. Hedge funds and liquidity providers adapted by widening market-making spreads in stressed names.
Market participants’ reactions and analyst interpretations
how is the stock market doing under trump was interpreted differently across participants:
- Institutional investors: focused on portfolio protection and sector rotation; many increased hedges around tariff-sensitive exposures (reported by Bloomberg and Axios, mid‑2025).
- Sell-side analysts: provided mixed verdicts — some emphasized fiscal tailwinds for domestic investment, others warned that tariffs could reduce margins and investment returns in affected sectors (NYT and CNN analyst summaries, 2025).
- Retail investors: displayed increased trading volume on headline days; brokers reported spikes in option activity tied to directional hedges (MarketWatch reporting, 2025).
Historical comparisons and context
how is the stock market doing under trump is often compared to past presidential starts. Analysts compared the 2025 start to several precedents:
- Worst starts: commentators noted that the initial months resembled uneven starts seen in years with strong policy uncertainty (analysts cited comparisons with early‑2000s and 2009 for different reasons; see NYT and Bloomberg op-eds, 2025).
- Limits: many analysts warned that presidential actions are one of several determinants — monetary policy, global shocks, and corporate fundamentals also play major roles.
As of April 2025, NYT highlighted that short-term index moves are poor predictors of full-term outcomes, emphasizing the need for multi-year perspective when attributing causality.
Macroeconomic linkages and corporate fundamentals
how is the stock market doing under trump is tied to GDP, inflation, unemployment and corporate earnings:
- GDP: stronger domestic investment plans can lift GDP and equities in cyclical sectors; conversely, protectionist measures can reduce trade volume.
- Inflation & unemployment: rising inflation can pressure margins and squeeze real incomes; unemployment trends affect consumer demand.
- Corporate earnings: ultimately, equity prices reflect discounted expected earnings. In 2025, analyst revisions after tariff announcements tended to reduce near‑term earnings expectations for affected sectors (MarketWatch earnings analysis, 2025).
Quantitative example: After a tariff announcement in May 2025, several sell‑side models cut forward EPS estimates for impacted industrial firms by 4–8% over the next 12 months (reported by Bloomberg and MarketWatch, May–June 2025).
Data, measurement and methodology
how is the stock market doing under trump should be assessed with clear data and windows. Common methods used by analysts in 2025 included:
- Index returns: total return and price return for S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq over specified windows (YTD, 30‑day, 12‑month).
- Drawdown analysis: peak-to-trough percentage decline to identify corrections and bear phases.
- Volatility measures: VIX and realized vol over rolling windows.
- Sector and factor returns: relative performance of sectors and style factors (value vs growth).
- Market-cap losses: dollar value lost/gained at market-cap level across indices during specific events.
Reliable sources cited by market commentators included Bloomberg terminal data, official index providers, the Federal Reserve, and headline reporting by The New York Times, CNN, PBS, Axios, MarketWatch and SmartAsset.
Criticisms, caveats and attribution issues
how is the stock market doing under trump remains subject to several critical caveats:
- Correlation vs causation: markets respond to many variables; attributing moves to a single policy without rigorous econometric testing is risky.
- Timing lags: policies may take months or years to affect corporate profits and macro data.
- Global factors: supply shocks, foreign demand and geopolitical events can dominate domestic policy effects.
- Monetary policy role: central bank decisions often explain a large share of equity variability; the Fed’s path often moderates or magnifies policy shocks.
Analysts therefore recommend multi-factor attribution and clear date-stamped claims when assessing presidential market effects (NYT and Bloomberg methodological discussions, 2025).
Aftermath and longer-term outlook
how is the stock market doing under trump in the near term depends on policy trajectory, Fed reactions and corporate adjustments. Potential scenarios discussed by analysts included:
- Stabilization scenario: tariffs are clarified and phased, allowing companies to adapt; indices recover as earnings outlook stabilizes.
- Prolonged uncertainty scenario: repeated policy shocks and retaliatory moves lower trade volumes and depress investment, leading to sustained volatility and weaker returns.
For investors, common suggestions from analysts included maintaining diversified exposures, monitoring policy timelines, and using trusted custody and trading solutions for orderly execution. Bitget provides tools for portfolio execution and custody through Bitget Wallet for secure management of digital assets; for equities, investors should use regulated brokerage and custody services appropriate for their jurisdiction.
See also
- U.S. stock market
- S&P 500
- Nasdaq Composite
- Tariff policy
- Federal Reserve monetary policy
- Market volatility
References
- As of May 13, 2025, Bloomberg reported immediate market reactions to announced tariff measures and increased realized volatility following the news. (Bloomberg, May 13, 2025)
- As of April 10, 2025, The New York Times summarized how the first 100 days compared historically and cautioned about short-term attribution. (The New York Times, Apr 10, 2025)
- As of March–April 2025, CNN reported on early‑term index swings and correction measures across major U.S. indices. (CNN, Mar–Apr 2025)
- Axios provided timely policy and market-analysis reporting during 2025 election and post‑election windows. (Axios, Nov 2024–2025)
- MarketWatch tracked sector and earnings reactions throughout 2025 reporting on realized volatility and earning‑revision impacts. (MarketWatch, 2025)
- SmartAsset published mid‑2025 analyses on valuation sensitivity to rate moves and sector exposure. (SmartAsset, 2025)
- U.S. News covered macro indicators and Fed communications affecting market sentiment in 2025. (U.S. News, 2025)
- PBS offered context on the macroeconomic environment and central-bank posture entering 2025. (PBS, 2025)
All date-stamped claims above reference contemporaneous reporting; readers should consult original reporting for numerical tables and full datasets.
External links
- For historical index levels and official data, consult index-provider pages and central‑bank publications.
- For secure asset custody and trading features discussed in this article, consider Bitget and Bitget Wallet for managing exposures and digital-asset needs.
Further explore how is the stock market doing under trump by tracking index-level data, reading the primary news reports cited above, and testing execution/custody workflows on Bitget. Stay updated with date-stamped reporting to keep attribution and measurement precise.
