where was the stock market when trump took office

where was the stock market when trump took office — This article answers that question for both Donald Trump’s first inauguration (Jan 20, 2017) and his later return to the presidency (Jan 20, 2025...

2025-09-07 10:04:00

By Meta Cipher

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Where was the stock market when Trump took office

where was the stock market when trump took office is a straightforward query many investors and observers ask around presidential transitions. This article covers the level and immediate market reaction of the major U.S. indices — the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite — for Donald Trump’s first inauguration on January 20, 2017 and his later inauguration-related market context in January 2025. It explains relevant trading-date specifics (including holiday closures), provides short-term performance through the first 100 days for each period, and outlines the main drivers that shaped markets at those moments.

Overview

Markets monitor political transitions because policy expectations tied to a new administration—tax changes, deregulation, trade policy, and fiscal programs—can affect corporate profits, interest-rate expectations, and risk appetite. This article focuses on three indices (Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite) and examines two time frames: the immediate inauguration day (or the first trading day available when markets were closed) and the first 100 days of the administration. Wherever possible, numbers are labeled as closing values, intraday readings, or first-trading-day figures so readers can verify the data.

Stock-market snapshot on Inauguration Day — First term (January 20, 2017)

Index closing levels and intraday movement

On January 20, 2017 (Donald Trump’s first inauguration), the stock market was trading at the following approximate closing values:

Dow Jones Industrial Average: 19,827.25 (closing value on Jan 20, 2017)
S&P 500: 2,271.31 (closing value on Jan 20, 2017)
Nasdaq Composite: 5,555.33 (closing value on Jan 20, 2017)

These figures reflect the market’s state on the trading day that included the inauguration. Reports from market summaries around Jan 20, 2017 described a small early dip in intraday trading followed by recovery into the close, as investors watched inaugural remarks and digested policy signals.

Market context immediately before and after inauguration

The readings on inauguration day were shaped by a multi‑week post‑election rally that began after the November 2016 results. Between the November 2016 election and January 2017, investors priced in expectations for corporate tax cuts, deregulation, and fiscal stimulus—policies perceived as potentially favorable to corporate earnings and certain cyclical sectors. Headlines and commentary at the time noted that market gains were concentrated in banks, industrials, and energy stocks, which would be most exposed to deregulation, infrastructure spending, and tax reform.

Short-term performance following the 2017 inauguration

After Jan 20, 2017, the market continued to be influenced by policy headlines, corporate earnings seasons, and macro data. Through the first 100 days of the administration, stocks generally remained elevated relative to election levels; the rally that started post‑election extended into early 2017 as investors awaited concrete policy steps and the unfolding timeline for tax legislation. Volatility during that period often keyed off specific legislative prospects and economic releases rather than the inauguration itself.

Stock-market snapshot on Inauguration Day — Second term / “Trump 2.0” (January 20, 2025) and the early 2025 period

Trading status on Jan 20, 2025 and immediate trading-day considerations

When assessing where markets were when Trump took office in 2025, a key practical detail matters: January 20, 2025 fell on a federal holiday (Martin Luther King Jr. Day). The U.S. equity markets were closed on Jan 20, 2025 for the holiday. As a result, many news outlets and market analysts reported inauguration‑related market reaction using the first trading day after the inauguration (the next open session) rather than an inauguration‑day intraday read. That distinction matters because a direct, same‑day trading reaction did not occur on Jan 20; the earliest market price signals tied to the second inauguration were therefore observed when exchanges resumed trading.

Index levels and market reaction in early 2025

In early 2025 the market was already operating in an environment shaped by a few dominant themes: a multi‑year bull market led by technology and AI-related gains, and heightened investor attention to trade and tariff policy. As of Dec. 23, 2025 (reporting on the 2025 market year), the S&P 500 had gained about 17% for the year, with forward P/E multiples and the Shiller CAPE ratio at elevated levels—metrics noted by market commentators in late 2025.

For the immediate weeks following the Jan 20, 2025 inauguration, analysts cited increased volatility tied to announcements and signals about a new tariff agenda and trade policy adjustments. Media coverage and market summaries in January–March 2025 reported short‑term swings as investors processed tariff announcements and the potential macroeconomic impacts described by central banks and independent economic research.

Short-term performance (first 100 days of 2025 term)

Over the first 100 trading days after the inauguration, markets experienced notable swings related to trade policy expectations and investor reassessment of growth and inflation. Several reports in 2025 documented that tariff measures announced early in the term created mixed market signals: some sectors more insulated or favored by AI and domestic demand continued to perform well, while other sectors sensitive to import costs and global supply chains saw increased pressure and higher volatility. Commentary from financial research outlets and the Federal Reserve’s regional reports flagged that tariffs can be inflationary but also, through demand effects, can reduce inflation in the short term while raising unemployment—factors that helped explain market moves in early 2025.

Main drivers of market moves at inauguration and early term

Policy expectations (taxes, regulation, fiscal policy)

Investor expectations of tax cuts, regulatory rollbacks, or fiscal stimulus are classic drivers of equity moves around transitions. When investors expected corporate tax reductions at the end of 2016 and into early 2017, valuations for some sectors expanded on the prospect of higher after‑tax earnings. Similarly, in 2025, expectations about tax policy and other fiscal measures shaped sector rotation and risk appetite. Markets respond not only to enacted policy but to the probability and timing of that policy; this is why trading often reacts to legislative calendars and administrative guidance as much as inaugural speeches.

Trade policy and tariffs

Trade policy surfaced as a particularly prominent driver in 2025. Announcements of sweeping tariffs in early and mid‑2025 raised questions about input costs, profit margins, consumer prices, and global supply‑chain adjustments. As described in contemporary analyses and in a Federal Reserve regional report summarized during 2025, tariffs can increase import prices and therefore be inflationary; however, if tariffs depress consumer spending, they can also exert downward pressure on inflation while raising unemployment. That interplay produced mixed signals for equities: higher input costs weighed on profit margins for some companies while certain domestically oriented industries or sectors benefiting from substitution effects could see relative strength.

Monetary policy and the Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve's stance and communications are central to market pricing at transitions. Expectations about interest rates, the pace of rate cuts or hikes, and Fed views on inflation indirectly shape equity valuations (discount rates for future earnings) and sector performance (financials often respond to rising-rate expectations, while growth stocks can be more rate‑sensitive). During both transitions discussed here, Fed commentary and data releases played a crucial role in the near‑term market narrative as investors parsed how fiscal policy and trade measures might influence inflation and the appropriate monetary policy response.

External shocks and macro events

Finally, non‑political macro shocks often overwhelm inauguration narratives. For example, during Trump’s first term the market backdrop included the later global shocks tied to the COVID-19 pandemic (though that occurred after the first 100 days). Similarly, in 2025 investors watched for geopolitical developments, supply‑chain disruptions, and central-bank research (including regional Fed reports) that could quickly re‑shape risk premia and market direction. This is an important caveat: attribution of any single market move solely to an inauguration or a president’s rhetoric risks oversimplification.

Comparative performance and historical perspective

Comparison with other presidencies at start of term

Comparing the Dow’s gains or S&P returns from election day to inauguration and through the first 100 days provides perspective but requires careful framing. After the 2016 election, for instance, the Dow and other indices posted a notable post‑election rally into early 2017 as investors priced in favorable corporate tax prospects and deregulation. In contrast, the early weeks of the 2025 term showed a mixed picture: while the broad market indices had made significant gains in the years leading up to 2025, the immediate post‑inauguration period featured heightened sensitivity to tariff policy announcements, producing more differentiated sector returns and greater near‑term volatility compared with 2017.

Interpreting short‑term stock moves vs. long‑term economic performance

Short‑term moves around an inauguration are not definitive statements about the broader economy. Equity indices are forward‑looking and reflect investors’ aggregated expectations about future cash flows, interest rates, and risk premia. As fact‑checking and market analysis outlets emphasize, presidents commonly cite market performance as evidence of policy success, but long‑term economic outcomes depend on a broader set of variables, including monetary policy, global conditions, technology trends, and corporate fundamentals. Caution is warranted in attributing long‑range economic or market outcomes to a single political event.

Notable index values and timeline

The following concise timeline highlights key index values and dates readers can reference. Values are noted as closing prices unless specified otherwise.

Nov 8, 2016 (post‑election): Markets began a rally as investors priced in policy changes; specific index values varied by day and data provider.
Jan 19, 2017: Dow close ~19,804.72 (reported in contemporaneous market summaries).
Jan 20, 2017 (inauguration day): Dow 19,827.25; S&P 500 2,271.31; Nasdaq 5,555.33 (closing values for that trading day).
Jan 20, 2025: Markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day (no same‑day trading data); first trading session after inauguration used for market reaction reporting.
Throughout 2025: S&P 500 experienced strong gains driven by AI leadership among sectors; as of Dec. 23, 2025 the S&P 500 had gained approximately 17% year‑to‑date (reported in late‑2025 market summaries).

Readers should consult official historical index providers for minute‑by‑minute or adjusted series when performing precise back‑testing or verification.

Reactions and political narratives

How administrations use market performance politically

It is common for leaders and political communicators to point to rising indices as evidence of favorable economic performance. Fact‑checking organizations routinely note that while market gains can be referenced to support political narratives, such claims often omit context—such as the role of monetary policy, preexisting market trends, or sector concentration in gains. The facts above demonstrate that markets around Trump’s 2017 inauguration were reacting to policy expectations already priced in after the election, and that the 2025 inauguration occurred into a market shaped by multi‑year trends (AI adoption) and contemporaneous trade policy shifts.

Media and analyst commentary

Media coverage typically frames inauguration‑linked market moves in two ways: immediate price reaction (intraday or first trading day) and short‑term directional themes (first 100 days). Analysts supplement headlines with sector breakdowns and valuation metrics—forward P/E multiples, Shiller CAPE, and macro indicators—to help investors understand whether price action reflects structural change or temporary sentiment. In the 2025 period, increased attention to forward P/E of ~21.8 (per FactSet in late‑2025 summaries) and a Shiller CAPE north of 40 informed many analysts’ cautionary tone despite strong index performance.

References and data sources

Key contemporary sources and data providers used to assemble the figures and context in this article include:

Business Insider: market close summaries for Jan 20, 2017 (closing index values cited).
Vox: contemporaneous reporting on market levels and context around Jan 19–20, 2017.
Wall Street Journal: analysis of the post‑election rally into early 2017.
CNN, Morningstar, Axios, and AP: reporting and charts covering the 2025 inauguration period and early‑term market reaction.
FactCheck.org: context on political claims linking markets to administration performance.
FactSet and YCharts: valuation metrics (forward P/E and Shiller CAPE) and index data cited in late‑2025 summaries.
Federal Reserve regional reports (e.g., San Francisco Fed): analysis of tariff impacts summarized in 2025.
Official exchange historical data providers and widely used data portals for price verification.

When using any of these sources, note whether values reported are closing prices, intraday mid‑session values, or first trading‑day readings after a holiday—this article has labeled items accordingly when possible.

Practical notes for readers

If you are tracking the question where was the stock market when trump took office for research or historical record‑keeping, consider these practical tips:

Confirm whether you are asking about a trading‑day close or an intraday reading. For Jan 20, 2017 we have closing values; for Jan 20, 2025 the market was closed and the first trading day after the inauguration should be used for market reaction.
Use official exchange historical data or reputable data providers to retrieve the exact time‑stamp you need (closing vs. intraday).
Context matters: compare election day, inauguration day, and key policy announcement dates to understand what drove price moves.
If you use market moves politically, be explicit about the time window and avoid implying a one‑to‑one causal link between an inauguration and long‑term economic outcomes.

Timeline — quick reference (values noted as closes unless specified)

Nov 8, 2016: Post‑election rally begins (index levels vary by provider).
Jan 19, 2017: Dow close ~19,804.72 (reported contemporaneously).
Jan 20, 2017 (trading day including inauguration): Dow 19,827.25; S&P 500 2,271.31; Nasdaq 5,555.33.
Jan 20, 2025: Markets closed (Martin Luther King Jr. Day); use first trading day after for market reaction.
Dec 23, 2025: S&P 500 had gained ~17% in 2025 year‑to‑date, forward P/E ~21.8 (FactSet), Shiller CAPE ~40.7 (YCharts/summary reporting).

About this article

This article aimed to answer the question where was the stock market when trump took office for both the 2017 and 2025 inauguration contexts. Numbers are reported with date labels and source attribution so readers can verify the figures against official historical data. The piece focuses on facts, common market drivers, and practical verification steps while avoiding prescriptive investment advice.

Further exploration: to track historical index levels day‑by‑day or to examine sector returns in a specific post‑inauguration window, obtain minute‑level or daily historical data from official exchange feeds or major financial data providers and align those series with policy and macroeconomic event timelines.

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