Biggest mining difficulty drop of 2023? 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin () enters the last full week of July on an uncertain footing as $30,000 becomes resistance.

In what promises to be an exciting, if potentially nerve-racking, week for traders, BTC price action is staring down a combination of volatility triggers.

Chief among these is the United States Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, this headlining an important slew of macro data releases.

Some hope these alone will be enough to shake Bitcoin out of its month-long trading range, which has barely moved from the $30,000 mark. The market has so far offered little cues as to where it might head next.

That said, traders have become impatient and increasingly believe that BTC/USD will ultimately break down from current levels to head toward $25,000 or lower.

Cointelegraph takes a look at the main factors in the debate over BTC price performance as July comes to a close.

Bitcoin delivered a classic volatility burst into the July 23 weekly close, giving bulls a glimpse of $30,000 support potentially returning.

However, this was short-lived, and with hours left to go until the weekly candle close, BTC/USD retraced its last-minute gains to end the week at almost exactly $30,000.

Overnigh t price action was still weaker; at the time of writing, Bitcoin was headed toward $29,000, per data from and .

Overall, however, the all-too-familiar range continues to endure.

As the weekend came to a close, Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of trading firm Eight, what he called the “crucial area” for bulls to break through.

“The crucial level didn’t break for Bitcoin, so we’ll continue the sideways chop,” he on the day.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/Twitter

Popular trader Daan Crypto Trades noted that the spike to $30,300 had effectively opened up and already closed a CME futures gap.

“Don’t fall for the weekend deviations,” he Twitter followers.

BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Daan Crypto Trades/Twitter

A cautiously optimistic take on the past month’s range came from fellow trader Credible Crypto, who suggested that Bitcoin could avoid more significant losses.

“For the last 30 days price has been within a tight range and aggregate OI has oscillated between 2 key levels,” he .

BTC/USD 1-hour chart. Source: TradingView

One event dominates the macro landscape this week — not only in crypto.

The Fed’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will meet on July 26 to decide how far to raise benchmark interest rates — if at all.

Unlike last month, markets have little doubt that a hike is to come with language from Fed officials leading them to practically unanimously predict a 0.25% increase.

to the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds currently stand at 99.8%.

Fed target rate probabilities chart. Source: CME Group

The week’s macro data releases will only come after FOMC, leaving no room for these to sway a decision in time. The releases are no less important, however, and include Q2 GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index print.

“Nothing like an action packed week in the markets. 20% of SP 500 companies reporting earnings along with a Fed meeting and inflation data to top it off,” financial commentary resource The Kobeissi Letter in part of a Twitter summary.

Fellow financial commentator Tedtalksmacro noted that overall global central bank liquidity conditions, despite the potential incoming hike, appeared to be at macro lows.

“After free falling since March, global CB liquidity could have found a bottom here,” he alongside comparative charts.

Global central bank liquidity vs. BTC/USD chart. Source: Tedtalksmacro/Twitter

Bitcoin’s stubborn trading range is taking its toll once again on network fundamentals as the fervent competition among miners cools.

to the latest estimates from BTC.com, Bitcoin’s mining difficulty will decrease by around 4% at its next automated readjustment on July 26.

, difficulty has seen only a handful of drops this year, and this week’s could be the largest of 2023 so far.

Bitcoin network fundamentals overview (screenshot). Source: BTC.com

Hash rate tells a similar consolidation story after hitting its all-time highs this month. Analyzing the hash ribbons metric, Charles Edwards, founder of crypto asset manager Capriole Investments, flagged a new “capitulation” phase.

While absent from the market since late 2022, when Bitcoin still suffered the consequences of the FTX meltdown, a capitulation is nothing for traders to fear, Edwards argued.

Despite this, he called the explosive growth in the hash rate of the past seven months “unsustainable.”

“We have a Hash Ribbon capitulation. AKA a slowing in Bitcoin’s Hash Rate growth after what has been an incredible (unsustainable) 50% increase in 2023,” he last week.

Bitcoin hash ribbons chart. Source: Charles Edwards/Twitter

Cointelegraph continues to cover the status quo among miners, with various theories emerging over .

As Bitcoin , a classic on-chain metric is delivering a similar signal that — at least for the time being — BTC price conditions may be overheated.

The network value to transaction (NVT) ratio, which divides the Bitcoin market cap by the U.S. dollar value of daily on-chain transactions, has hit four-year highs.

NVT seeks to give an indication of when the on-chain volume is out of sync with overall network value, but its implications can vary.

As explained by its creator, analyst Willy Woo, NVT spikes can occur in both bull markets and periods of “unsustainable” price growth.

“When Bitcoin`s NVT is high, it indicates that its network valuation is outstripping the value being transmitted on its payment network, this can happen when the network is in high growth and investors are valuing it as a high return investment, or alternatively when the price is in an unsustainable bubble,” he wrote in an accompanying to the metric on his analytics site, Woobull.

Bitcoin NVT ratio chart (screenshot). Source: Woobull

In his latest interview with Cointelegraph, Capriole’s Edwards versus extreme highs, such as those seen during 2021.

“NVT is currently trading at a normal level,” he said, adding that “given its normalized reading today, it doesn’t tell us much; just that Bitcoin is fairly valued according to this metric alone.”

A silver lining in the making? Bitcoin’s available supply continues to shrink behind the scenes.

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As noted by various market participants, the amount of BTC on offer for purchase shows enduring conviction among its most ardent hodlers.

55% of the supply has now dormant for at least two years, and 29% for five years or more, data from on-chain analytics firm Glassnode .

“The Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply has reached a new ATH of 14.52M BTC, equivalent to 75% of the circulating supply,” additional analysis this week.

An accompanying chart showed the amount of BTC in the hands of so-called long-term holders, or LTHs, defined as entities hodling coins for 155 days or more.

Bitcoin long-term hodler supply annotated chart. Source: Glassnode/Twitter

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This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.