MicroStrategy Remains Included in MSCI Indexes. Is This Victory Sufficient to Justify Purchasing MSTR Shares in 2026?

MicroStrategy Avoids MSCI Index Exclusion

MicroStrategy (MSTR) narrowly sidestepped a major setback to its much-debated Bitcoin (BTCUSD) treasury approach after MSCI decided, following a thorough review, not to remove companies holding digital assets from its indexes.

This announcement sparked a 2.5% rally in MicroStrategy shares, pushing its market value to $48.8 billion. The news brought a measure of relief to investors, especially after the stock had plunged over 50% in the fourth quarter of 2025, mirroring a roughly 25% drop in Bitcoin’s price during the same timeframe.

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The MSCI USA Index represents about 85% of the U.S. equity market and acts as a key benchmark for institutional investors. If MicroStrategy had been excluded, funds tracking the index would have been compelled to sell their holdings in the company.

Such forced selling could have led to significant losses for MicroStrategy, whose business is heavily focused on acquiring Bitcoin rather than generating revenue from its original software operations.

MicroStrategy and MSCI: A Tense Standoff

In November, MSCI proposed excluding firms with over half their assets in digital currencies—a move that directly threatened MicroStrategy’s core strategy. Michael Saylor, the company’s Executive Chairman, who has turned the business into the largest corporate Bitcoin holder with 673,783 BTC, strongly opposed the proposal.

MicroStrategy responded in December with a formal letter, arguing that the proposed rule was both unfair and arbitrary. Saylor emphasized that the company is an active business generating returns for shareholders, not simply a passive investment vehicle.

MSCI has indicated it will continue to review the classification of non-operating companies, aiming to better distinguish between investment-focused entities and those holding digital assets as part of their main operations. The 50% digital asset threshold remains, and MSCI will not increase MicroStrategy’s index weighting or allow it to move between size segments for now.

Assessing the Risk: MicroStrategy’s Bold Bitcoin Bet

Once a struggling software firm, MicroStrategy has reinvented itself as the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin holder, accumulating more than 670,000 BTC—valued at around $61 billion—through an aggressive capital-raising strategy focused on cryptocurrency purchases.

Michael Saylor’s unconventional approach treats Bitcoin as a permanent part of the company’s capital, rather than a speculative asset. However, this model faces hurdles, as the premium of MicroStrategy’s share price over its net asset value has shrunk considerably.

The company now owns over 3% of all Bitcoin that will ever be mined, having raised nearly $50 billion through equity and debt in the past five years to fund its acquisitions.

MicroStrategy’s strategy revolves around what Saylor calls “Bitcoin yield”—the rate at which the company increases its Bitcoin holdings per share. The firm aims for a 30% annual yield by raising capital at a premium to its existing Bitcoin value and converting the proceeds into more cryptocurrency.

Last year, S&P assigned MicroStrategy its first credit rating, a B-minus, giving it access to institutional capital. However, S&P assigned no capital value to the company’s Bitcoin, classifying it as speculative. This conservative stance keeps the rating low, despite the company’s substantial crypto collateral and relatively modest $15 billion in debt and preferred equity.

There are ongoing concerns about the company’s sustainability, especially as its market cap hovers near or below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. The premium over net asset value has recently dropped to about 0.90 times, meaning shares are trading at a slight discount to the underlying Bitcoin, with little extra value attributed to its treasury strategy.

To cover its $689 million in annual dividend and interest payments, management has several options, including selling equity or Bitcoin derivatives, or liquidating high-cost-basis Bitcoin. The company is careful not to sell its legacy software business, aiming to maintain favorable tax treatment for preferred dividends.

Is MicroStrategy Stock Undervalued?

MicroStrategy shares have more than tripled over the past five years, yet they remain 65% below their historical peak.

Among the 16 analysts tracking the stock, 13 rate it as a “Strong Buy,” one as a “Moderate Buy,” and two as “Hold.” The consensus price target is $486.29, suggesting nearly 200% upside from current levels.