Oil company executives are gathering with Trump today. Here’s what they’re asking for

US Oil Executives Weigh Return to Venezuela Amid Uncertainty

President Donald Trump is preparing to meet with leaders from major US oil companies on Friday, launching a week of efforts aimed at convincing American energy giants to re-enter the Venezuelan market.

Despite the outreach, industry leaders remain highly doubtful about investing tens of billions over the next decade to revive Venezuela’s struggling oil sector. According to sources familiar with the discussions, executives attending the White House meeting intend to avoid making any binding investment promises, citing the country’s instability as a major deterrent.

So far, Trump and his advisors have not presented a clear plan for rebuilding Venezuela’s energy infrastructure or ensuring its long-term security, insiders say.

“They’re improvising as they go,” remarked one individual involved in the industry’s preparations for the meeting.

Nevertheless, oil companies acknowledge the potential for significant profits given Venezuela’s vast oil reserves, and would reconsider if the environment became more favorable.

Establishing Legal Protections

The Venezuelan military has assumed a prominent role in the state oil company, PDVSA, and the sector has been plagued by widespread theft. Executives have warned US officials about the country’s history of hostage situations and the risk of backlash from local communities against foreign resource extraction.

“Certain conditions must be met before any major investment can happen in Venezuela,” said Mike Summers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, during a Fox News interview. “First and foremost, there must be a reliable legal framework.”

During talks with Trump’s team, oil executives have sought assurances about the safety of personnel and equipment deployed to remote Venezuelan sites. Thus far, the administration’s responses have not provided sufficient reassurance, though Energy Secretary Chris Wright has acknowledged the complexity of the situation.

Wright told CNN’s Jake Tapper that, “To make large, long-term investments, the government must first ensure the rule of law and national security, and that will take time.”

Political Stability and Infrastructure Challenges

Restoring Venezuela’s oil output to previous levels would require extensive infrastructure projects, including new pipelines, drilling rigs, port facilities, and reliable power supplies. Industry experts, insiders, and Wright estimate that such efforts would demand over $10 billion annually and more than a decade to yield returns.

The US could see several new presidents before these investments pay off, and Venezuela would need to transition to a stable democracy while avoiding internal unrest.

“Oil companies won’t be pressured into investing in a country with high risks or unfavorable terms,” said Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners.

Any guarantees from the Trump administration would only last as long as Trump remains in office and maintains influence over Venezuela’s government. This uncertainty makes it difficult for oil companies to trust that future US or Venezuelan administrations won’t alter the terms.

“The administration’s promises alone aren’t enough. Achieving this requires broad political agreement, and we’re far from that,” said Ryan Kellogg, deputy dean at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy.

Sanctions and Regulatory Hurdles

In private meetings, oil executives have expressed concern that Trump may push for immediate commitments. Instead, they have discussed highlighting their capacity to quickly boost Venezuelan oil production by hundreds of thousands of barrels per day—if certain conditions are met.

Chief among these is the removal of key sanctions and access to necessary equipment for processing Venezuela’s heavier crude oil.

The Trump administration has indicated it may lift some sanctions to pave the way for US companies to return. However, Venezuela’s laws require foreign firms to enter joint ventures with the state, pay a 30% royalty, and face a 60% income tax.

“Venezuela’s fiscal terms are extremely tough—why would anyone choose to operate there?” asked Luisa Palacios, former Citgo chairwoman and managing director at Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy. “It’s a very challenging environment—even Chinese companies struggle here.”

Outstanding Debts and Compensation

Several international energy companies, including Eni, Repsol, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil, had their assets seized by Venezuela in 2007 and were expelled. Collectively, they are seeking tens of billions in compensation from PDVSA.

“Exxon won’t forget what happened,” Kellogg noted. “Some compensation is necessary, but Venezuela currently lacks the funds to pay.”

Wright told CNBC that companies returning to Venezuela could eventually be repaid through proceeds from oil sales managed by the US government, though immediate profits would be directed toward rebuilding Venezuela’s economy.

Financial Incentives and Guarantees

With moderate investment and cooperation from the US government, Venezuela could potentially restore its oil fields to their previous capacity before US sanctions took full effect, according to Palacios. Achieving more would require substantial funding and time.

To attract oil companies, financial guarantees, low-interest loans, reimbursements, or other incentives may be essential. The administration has suggested it might offer government-backed financing, political risk insurance, or other measures to support private investment in Venezuela.

“Fiscal terms, guarantees, and backstops will be critical,” said Pickering. “US government support could accelerate the process, but it’s unclear if such measures will be provided.”

Growing Industry Interest

Experts agree that, under the right circumstances, Venezuela could draw significant long-term investment from oil companies.

The country’s enormous oil reserves are a major draw—similar to how Iraq’s resources attracted foreign firms despite political instability two decades ago.

Wright told CNN that he has received a flood of inquiries from oil companies interested in Venezuela. While the Trump administration won’t force companies to invest, it aims to help stabilize Venezuela’s political situation, though this will take time.