Mortgage rates have fallen to their lowest point in 15 months. Should you consider locking in your rate now?

Mortgage Rates Are At Their Lowest Point Since Fall 2024

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With mortgage rates dropping, more buyers are feeling encouraged to enter the market. Rather than trying to predict the perfect moment, securing a rate when you’re prepared is often the smarter move.

Main Points to Remember

• Mortgage rates have returned to levels not seen since autumn 2024, giving buyers a break after a period of high borrowing costs.
• Attempting to time your rate lock based on events like Federal Reserve decisions can be unreliable, as mortgage rates react to a variety of factors.
• For most buyers, it’s more important to lock in a rate when you’re financially ready, since refinancing is always an option down the road.

Recent Trends in Mortgage Rates

Anyone tracking mortgage rates may have noticed a welcome dip this week. After spending much of the past year at elevated levels, the average rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage has gradually declined, reaching as low as 6.23% by midday Monday.

This marks the lowest average for 30-year mortgages since early October 2024. As illustrated in the chart below, rates hovered above 7% at times over the past year before beginning a steady descent.

For those who have been waiting to buy, these lower rates are a welcome change. However, forecasting future movements is challenging. Mortgage rates can shift rapidly in response to economic news, investor sentiment, or broader market trends, and similar situations in the past haven’t always produced the same results.

This unpredictability leaves many buyers facing a familiar dilemma: should you wait for more certainty, or take advantage of today’s rates?

What This Means for Homebuyers

Mortgage rates are now at levels not seen in over a year, but the future remains uncertain. Understanding why waiting for perfect timing can backfire may help you decide if locking in a rate now fits your financial plans.

The Pitfalls of Waiting for “Perfect Signals”

When rates begin to fall, it’s common for buyers to look for signs that they’ll drop further. This often involves monitoring economic news, reading forecasts, or waiting for confirmation that rates will improve.

One widespread misconception is that Federal Reserve rate cuts automatically lower mortgage rates. While the Fed’s policies impact the economy, its primary rate influences short-term borrowing, not long-term loans like mortgages. Mortgage rates are affected by a broader range of elements, such as inflation data, investor outlook, and bond market trends, so a Fed rate cut doesn’t guarantee lower mortgage rates.

In reality, mortgage rates don’t respond to any single indicator, nor do they move in ways that buyers can easily predict. The many factors that influence mortgage rates can change quickly, and markets often react before trends become obvious. This is why similar circumstances can lead to different outcomes, making it risky to wait for reassurance before acting.

Deciding When to Lock In Your Mortgage Rate

With mortgage rates at their lowest in over a year, it’s natural to wonder if waiting could bring even better deals. However, recent fluctuations show there’s no reliable way to predict future rates or how long current conditions will last.

That’s why many real estate professionals recommend focusing on your own readiness rather than trying to outsmart the market. If you’ve found a home you love, your finances are solid, and the payments fit your budget, locking in a rate now can remove a major source of uncertainty from the process.

While waiting for a better rate might work out, it also carries risks—such as rates rising, increased competition, or missing out on the right property. For many buyers, having the confidence to move forward outweighs the pursuit of the absolute lowest rate.

Your Initial Rate Isn’t Permanent

Keep in mind that locking in a mortgage rate now doesn’t mean you’re stuck with it forever. If rates drop significantly in the future, refinancing can help you secure a lower payment—without losing the opportunity to buy the home you want today.