Q1 Trading Forecast: Five Key Issues and Three Unpredictable Events

Reflections on the Upcoming Quarter

After more than twenty years of sharing my perspectives on the upcoming quarters, I have never found it as challenging as I do now to establish a clear “base case” for the direction of the economy and financial markets in the near future. The main difficulty lies not so much in predicting the eventual results, but rather in determining the timing of key events that are likely to unfold. For traders, of course, timing can be the deciding factor between success and failure. As the deadline for this quarter’s outlook approached, I drew inspiration from an unexpected source...