Dec CPI Preview: Don’t Trust This CPI Bounce

- December CPI rebound stems from technical factors like government shutdowns and abnormal sampling, not genuine inflation resurgence.

- BLS's "carry forward" methods and Black Friday discounts suppressed November readings, causing December catch-up effects.

- Fed officials will likely ignore single-month distortions but post-CPI comments will shape market expectations ahead of January FOMC.

- Long-term inflation stickiness risks persist as companies plan to pass 2026 tariff costs to consumers, challenging Fed's policy framework.