US PPI today: retail data reinforces cautious outlook.

• Elevated annual US PPI keeps market attention;
• Monthly PPI slows down, indicating cost relief;
• US retail today shows consumption remains resilient;

The most recent data from the United States economy placed the Producer Price Index (PPI) is once again on the radar of global markets. The indicator maintained significant pressure over the past 12 months, but showed signs of slowing down in the short term, reinforcing a more cautious view of the trajectory of producer price inflation.

In the year-on-year comparison, the PPI advanced 3,0% in October compared to the same month in 2024. The result repeated the variation observed previously, after revision, and confirmed that costs throughout the production chain remain high. This level keeps producer price inflation as a sensitive point for monetary policy, especially given the risk of pass-through to consumer prices.

In the monthly breakdown, however, the movement was more moderate. The PPI rose 0,1% in October compared to September, slowing significantly after the 0,6% increase recorded in the previous month. The core PPI, which excludes more volatile items, remained stable during the period, after a 0,1% increase. This behavior suggests some relief from cost pressures in the short term, although the annual level continues to require monitoring.

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The combination of persistent annual inflation and weakening monthly inflation reinforces a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve. The PPI remains one of the main indicators used to assess inflationary risks and calibrate the pace of monetary policy in the coming months.

In addition to producer price inflation, retail sales figures also helped shape the economic picture. Year-on-year, sales grew 3,30% in November, below the 3,47% increase recorded in October. This data points to a gradual slowdown in consumption when analyzed on a one-year basis, although the indicator remains in positive territory.

The monthly result, on the other hand, came in above market projections. Retail sales advanced 0,6% in November compared to October, exceeding the expected increase of 0,5%. In the previous month, the indicator had registered a drop of 0,1%, which was subsequently revised.

This monthly performance reinforces the view that household consumption remains resilient, even in an environment of high interest rates and closely monitored inflation. Taken together, the PPI and retail sales paint a mixed picture for the US economy, with signs of moderation in some areas and support in others, elements that continue to influence the mood of traditional markets and the monitoring of cryptocurrency investors.