News

1. Due to the damage to refinery facilities in the Gulf region caused by the Iran war and the disruption of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, the benchmark aluminum price on the London Metal Exchange has risen by 15% since the end of February, while COMEX aluminum futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange have increased by over 30%. According to data from the US Geological Survey, in 2025, the US will import over 5 million tons of aluminum, with Canada supplying more than half, and the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain together accounting for 12%.
2. Aluminum is a key raw material for the rails, clamps, and supports in solar mounting systems. The CEO of SEG Solar stated that the price of solar project mounting systems has already increased by about 20%, and some projects with thin profit margins may be forced to cancel. For 500-watt modules, the aluminum frame typically accounts for about $10 of the cost per module, and under supply constraints, this will rise by 50% to $15 per module. Calculated based on 500 GW of installed capacity, this means an added cost of $5 billion.
3. The US Energy Information Administration expects that in 2026, developers will add 43.4 GW of utility-scale solar power capacity, up 60% compared to last year. Experts indicate that even a slight increase in the cost per watt will be significantly amplified when it comes to large-scale installation. It is expected that the cost increases in the third and fourth quarters of 2026 will be passed on to commercial end users, including utility-scale developers, office buildings, data centers, and factories.

Foresight News reports, according to The Block, that Circle Technology Services (an affiliate of Circle Internet Group) and the global real-time cross-border payments infrastructure platform Nium have announced a partnership aimed at connecting stablecoin settlements with a global payments network spanning over 190 countries. According to the statement, Nium is joining Circle's payment network (CPN) as a global payments partner, providing financial institutions within the network with direct access to its distribution infrastructure, supporting over 100 local currencies. This collaboration enables financial institutions to use USDC for settlements, bringing funds into Nium's payment infrastructure through the CPN network via a single integration, allowing local currency funds to be delivered to global accounts, wallets, and cards.

1. U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline on Wednesday, with the 10-year yield falling a total of 22 basis points from its recent peak, though overnight gains were negligible. Rebounding oil prices and a weakening Japanese yen are exerting new pressure on the bond market. The yen is hovering near its lowest level since late April, a point that previously triggered official intervention by Japan. Institutional data shows the market is still betting on a roughly 70% chance that the Bank of Japan will hike rates by 25 basis points at its June meeting. The rebound in Japanese bonds has stalled or even shown signs of reversal, which could push U.S. Treasury yields back up.
2. Crude oil futures appear to be nearing the formation of a short-term bottom. If tensions persist, inventories continue to decline, and idle production capacity erodes further, the energy market may be forced to aggressively reprice the risk to remaining supply. This increases the likelihood that oil prices will rise to $120–$150 per barrel, quickly reviving inflation concerns and exerting new upward pressure on global yields. The market may be underestimating the reality that the so-called peace process increasingly resembles a delaying tactic rather than a true solution. Iran is highly unlikely to make concessions on uranium enrichment or restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz, and core geopolitical risk points remain unresolved.
3. The daily chart for the 10-year yield shows the middle line of the Bollinger Bands at 4.47%, with the 4.43% region forming strong support. After the yield broke out upwards from an extremely narrow Bollinger Band width, a natural short-covering rally pushed the 10-year yield to the middle line. Without a genuine peace agreement and with core PCE rising 0.4% month-on-month on Thursday, yields may quickly move up towards 4.60%. Tactically, a two-way range trading mindset remains, but there is a bias towards selling on rebounds, targeting a trading range of 4.50% to 4.46% for the 10-year yield.
4. The European Central Bank, in its semi-annual review, warned that the Iran conflict could trigger a series of global financial crises. The increasing uncertainty of U.S. government commitments to multilateral cooperation has heightened the risk of policy shocks disrupting international order. More persistent energy supply interruptions and significantly weaker economic growth could prompt markets to reassess sovereign risk, while the presence of price-sensitive investors such as hedge funds in the eurozone sovereign bond market could amplify any sudden repricing of sovereign risk.

According to Foresight News, Falcon Finance has announced the launch of the stablecoin fUSD together with an exchange Digital Bank. fUSD is a US dollar payment stablecoin designed to comply with the GENIUS Act. fUSD is the first GENIUS-ready stablecoin to be launched on the institutional infrastructure of this exchange, and features a yield structure: eligible institutional holders can share in the economic returns of fUSD’s reserves, targeting an annual yield of approximately 3%. Rewards are provided by Falcon Finance through individual bilateral agreements with qualified institutional holders, rather than by the exchange or Digital Bank. Falcon Finance will be among the first holders, allocating a portion of its corporate reserves to fUSD from day one.

1. The US Treasury will issue $69 billion WI 4-month Treasury bills, maturing on September 29. Last week's auction yield for comparable Treasury bills was 3.59%, while the current buying quote is 3.625%. The WI 4-month buying quote is 3.63%, and the forward roll is 0.6 basis points, slightly above fair value. This relatively expensive level is expected to dampen bidding demand.
2. The butterfly spread between the 2-month, WI 4-month, and 6-month Treasury bills is 1.7 basis points, widening by 1.8 basis points compared to last week. The three-month fluctuation range for this butterfly spread is from minus 1 basis point to plus 2.5 basis points, currently at the wider end of the range.
3. The September Secured Overnight Financing Rate futures currently trade at an implied rate of 3.75%, with pricing reflecting an 80% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike. Against this backdrop, the strategy of shorting the September contract and buying WI 4-month Treasury bills is not attractive. The average bid-to-cover ratio for the last six 4-month Treasury bill auctions was 3.07, with indirect bidders accounting for 53.14%.