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Caixin Futures Nonferrous and New Energy Analysis: Ongoing Macro Disturbances, Divergence Between Gold and Silver, Focus on Buying Opportunities in Aluminum and Lithium on Pullbacks⑴ For Shanghai copper, the macro focus remains on the uncertainty of US tariff policies and the geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran. Any escalation of the situation could provide support for prices. On the fundamentals side, according to SMM, both supply and demand are showing signs of recovery. Downstream resumption of work and production is progressing, purchasing sentiment is improving, and the market is in the early stage of post-holiday supply and demand rebalancing. However, inventories remain high, and the Fed's interest rate cut path is highly uncertain. Subsequent policies may lean towards tightening. Coupled with weak fundamentals, prices may find it difficult to continue rising unless the US-Iran situation further escalates. In the short term, prices may remain range-bound. ⑵ For Shanghai zinc, the macro background is similar to copper. Fundamentals are in the off-season, with both supply and demand weak. It is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range in the short term. ⑶ For precious metals, due to the recent hawkish remarks from the Fed, the market holds a cautious attitude towards the future rate cut path, and gold prices are fluctuating. However, any sign of escalating US-Iran tensions could provide further support for gold and strengthen its role as a hedging tool. For silver, the proportion of registered warehouse receipts remains at a low level, providing short-term price support. Volatility may continue, and traders need to strictly control their positions. ⑷ For alumina, recent disruptions in domestic and overseas ore supply and some maintenance have led to tight spot circulation and high price fluctuations. However, the market has a relatively consistent expectation for future resumption of production and new capacity releases, which suppresses the upside. Looking ahead, spot prices still have support in the short term, but with clear expectations of increased supply, the price center is expected to move downward. ⑸ For aluminum, driven by the strong performance of London aluminum during the holiday, Shanghai aluminum rose slightly after the holiday. With a favorable macro environment at home and abroad, optimistic demand expectations, and tightening supply expectations, the medium- and long-term bullish outlook for Shanghai aluminum and cast aluminum remains unchanged. However, short-term uncertainties persist, and inventory accumulation exerts pressure. It is recommended to wait for a pullback to go long. On the supply side, pay attention to overseas developments; on the demand side, focus on the strength of domestic resumption of work, procurement, and destocking pace. ⑹ For lithium carbonate, Zimbabwe has banned all exports of raw minerals and lithium concentrate. The domestic market opened high but moved lower, and the short-term strategy should be to buy on dips. Going forward, focus on the realization of demand expectations, inventory changes, and be alert to unexpected changes on the supply and macro fronts.