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PANews, February 26 – According to the latest weekly report from a certain exchange research institute, the initial increase in uncertainty caused by the U.S. Supreme Court's tariff ruling appears to have a rather limited direct impact based on quantitative analysis, and the market may have exaggerated the downside risks to inflation and economic fundamentals. Concerns about AI disrupting software may be overstated. Once software stocks form a lasting bottom, the mechanical linkage between tech stocks and bitcoin will fade. This week, Nvidia's earnings report and Anthropic's enterprise partnership updates may serve as early signals in this direction. Currently, bitcoin and global M2 money supply are experiencing the longest and largest divergence in history, stemming from three major structural distortions: a weakening dollar mechanically boosts the nominal value of M2 through exchange rate conversion; the approval of spot ETFs has led institutions to classify bitcoin and software stocks under the same high-volatility tech factor; and persistently high real interest rates have made money market funds a competitive alternative to risk assets. The convergence of this divergence requires three conditions: stabilization of tech stocks, a decline in real interest rates, and a stable dollar, which may be achieved between the second half of 2026 and early 2027. Multiple technical indicators point to the market approaching a structural bottom: the realized profit and loss ratio has fallen below 1 for the first time since 2023, leverage has rebounded to November highs, and defensive option positions have reached their most extreme levels since the FTX collapse. Fourth quarter 13F holdings data show that price-sensitive capital (investment advisors, banks, hedge funds) had a net sale of about 34,000 BTC, while long-term institutional capital (governments, holding companies, private equity) continued to increase their holdings.

According to Odaily, Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas posted on X that yesterday, bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $500 million in inflows, marking the largest single-day increase in recent times. Over the past two days, the total inflow reached about $750 million, occurring amid strong market pessimism. He described this influx as "like hitting a home run during a slump," providing a boost to the market. Since the beginning of the year, bitcoin ETFs have still seen a cumulative net outflow of less than $2 billion. However, it is not yet clear whether this signals the start of a true rebound or is merely a short-lived "dead cat bounce."

Gelonghui, February 26th｜UBS analysts wrote in a report to clients that, in the short term, demand for high-end goods in South Korea may provide favorable factors for the luxury goods industry. “For the luxury goods industry, Korean consumers remain commercially and strategically important,” the analysts said. UBS added that these clients on average account for a mid- to high-single-digit percentage of group sales. “They also serve as a useful leading indicator for broader regional trends.” According to UBS, Hermès, Moncler, Prada, and Burberry are the most likely beneficiaries.