Trans-Pacific shipping costs are climbing – will shipment volumes increase as well?

Trans-Pacific Container Rates Surge Ahead of Lunar New Year

Shipping costs for containers on the eastbound trans-Pacific route have seen a significant uptick, with notable double-digit increases as the Lunar New Year approaches.

According to Freightos analyst Judah Levine, the momentum that began in mid-December continued into January, coinciding with the implementation of general rate increases (GRIs) by carriers.

Freightos data reveals that rates to the West Coast jumped by 22%, reaching $2,617 per forty-foot equivalent unit (FEU)—over 30% higher than mid-December figures.

The Ocean TEU Volume Index indicates that shipment volumes from China to the U.S. have remained steady since mid-December.

Rates to the East Coast also climbed, rising 12% to $3,757 per FEU after a 20% surge in less than a month. Many shippers are preparing for the mid-February Lunar New Year, a period when Chinese manufacturing typically pauses for several weeks.

Levine noted that the sustained rate increases—unlike previous quarters when prices quickly dropped after GRIs—suggest that demand ahead of the Lunar New Year is helping to maintain higher prices on these routes.

However, the National Retail Federation anticipates that high retail inventory levels will keep January shipping volumes about 10% below last year. Additionally, ongoing expansion of carrier capacity is expected to put downward pressure on rates compared to the previous year.

GRIs have also pushed Asia-Europe rates up by 9% to approximately $3,000 per FEU, while Asia-Mediterranean prices soared over 20% to $4,800 per FEU—representing increases of 23% and 45% respectively since mid-December.

Rates for Mediterranean routes have matched their 2025 peak season highs, and European prices have reached their highest point since late August, as pre-Lunar New Year demand has absorbed the extra capacity.

Levine commented that, while these rates are well above typical pre-Lunar New Year levels, Asia-Europe prices are still 40% lower than last year, likely due to the expanding shipping fleet, despite ongoing Red Sea diversions and stronger volumes.

Further Reading

• More articles by Stuart Chirls can be found here.

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This article was originally published on FreightWaves.