RFK Jr's proposed food pyramid may push annual household grocery expenses to $36,400: Which stocks stand to benefit or suffer

New Dietary Recommendations from Health and Human Services

This week, Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. introduced updated nutrition guidelines that have drawn attention from consumers, nutritionists, and the food industry. Dubbed the "new food pyramid," these recommendations could potentially lead to increased grocery bills for many Americans.

Below, we explore the projected financial impact of these changes and identify which companies might benefit or face challenges if the new guidelines are widely adopted.

Details of Kennedy’s Revised Food Pyramid

Since joining the Trump administration, Kennedy has prioritized his initiative to "Make America Healthy Again." His approach includes advocating for cooking with beef tallow, eliminating artificial food dyes, and emphasizing minimally processed foods. The newly revealed food pyramid is a dramatic departure from the familiar 1990s version, essentially flipping the traditional structure upside down.

In the original pyramid, grains formed the base, with recommendations for 6 to 11 servings daily of foods like bread, cereal, rice, and pasta.

By contrast, Kennedy’s updated pyramid places the greatest emphasis on protein sources, dairy, fruits, and vegetables, while whole grains are given the smallest role at the base.

“As the Health and Human Services Secretary, my guidance is straightforward: choose real, whole foods,” Kennedy stated, describing the changes as a significant shift in federal dietary policy.

He added, “Today, our government is taking a stand against added sugars and highly processed foods.”

The new guidelines highlight foods such as whole milk, butter, and red meat—contradicting recent research that suggests limiting red meat to reduce certain health risks.

These recommendations come at a time when many families are already facing higher grocery prices, making nutritious eating even more costly.

For a household of four, this translates to an annual food budget of $36,400—or $9,100 per individual. Depending on household income, this could represent a significant portion of monthly expenses.

Potential Market Winners and Losers

Kennedy’s outspoken criticism of the food industry has put major companies under scrutiny, especially beverage giants like PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) and Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). With the new focus on reducing sugary drinks, these companies may face renewed challenges.

Large packaged food producers such as General Mills (NYSE: GIS), Kraft Heinz, and Kellogg's may need to reformulate products and rethink their marketing strategies as the administration encourages Americans to limit consumption of many processed foods.

On the other hand, meat producers like Tyson Foods (NYSE: TSN) and Seaboard Corporation (AMEX: SEB) could benefit from the increased emphasis on high-protein diets.

Companies specializing in fruits and vegetables, including Fresh Del Monte Produce (NYSE: FDP) and Dole Plc (NYSE: DOLE), may also see positive effects as their products become more central to recommended eating patterns.

Kennedy has praised restaurant chain Steak ‘n Shake, owned by Biglari Holdings (NYSE: BH), for switching to beef tallow in their kitchens. Other restaurants with a focus on meat, such as Texas Roadhouse Inc (NASDAQ: TXRH), could also gain from these new dietary preferences.

Retailers and restaurant chains known for healthier options, like Sprouts Farmers Market (NASDAQ: SFM), Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG), and Whole Foods (owned by Amazon.com Inc, NASDAQ: AMZN), may attract more attention as consumers seek out foods that align with the new guidelines.

While not all Americans will be able to fully adopt Kennedy’s recommendations, those who do may influence public perception of food companies and impact their financial performance in the future.

Image credit: RealFood.gov