Soybean prices declined on Monday after the USDA increased its ending stocks estimate

Soybean Market Update: Monday Recap

On Monday, soybean futures experienced declines ranging from 7 to 15 ½ cents for most contracts, though some later-dated contracts saw slight gains. The national average cash price for soybeans, as reported by cmdtyView, dropped by 13 1/4 cents to $9.76 1/2. Soymeal futures contributed to the downward pressure, falling between $3.10 and $5.40, while soy oil futures managed to rise by 32 to 58 points. There were 33 soybean delivery notices issued on Friday evening, with two for January soymeal.

Latest Crop Production Insights

This morning's Crop Production report from NASS kept the soybean yield steady at 53 bushels per acre, unchanged from November. Harvested acreage edged up to 80.4 million acres, and total production increased by 9 million bushels to reach 4.262 billion bushels.

Grain Stocks and WASDE Highlights

The Quarterly Grain Stocks report indicated that as of December 1, soybean stocks stood at 3.29 billion bushels. This figure is 190 million bushels higher than last year and surpasses analyst expectations by 40 million bushels.

The latest WASDE report reflected these production changes, with the USDA lowering export projections by 60 million bushels to 1.575 billion and raising the crush estimate by 15 million to 2.57 billion. As a result, U.S. ending stocks increased by 60 million bushels to 350 million.

Export and International Crop Developments

According to USDA’s FGIS, soybean export shipments for the week ending January 8 reached 1.529 million metric tons (56.21 million bushels), marking the second-highest weekly total for the current marketing year. This volume is 55.4% higher than the previous week and 12.7% above the same week last year. China was the leading importer with 901,118 metric tons, followed by Mexico with 126,235 metric tons. Since September 1, 2025/26 marketing year exports have totaled 17.934 million metric tons (659 million bushels), which is 42.7% below the same period last year.

AgRural reported that as of last Thursday, 0.6% of Brazil’s soybean crop had been harvested, slightly ahead of last year’s 0.3% pace. The USDA’s WASDE report this morning increased Brazil’s soybean production estimate by 3 million metric tons, bringing it to 178 million metric tons.

Recent Soybean Closing Prices

• January 2026 Soybeans closed at $10.33, a decrease of 15 1/2 cents
• Nearby Cash price settled at $9.76 1/2, down 13 1/4 cents
• March 2026 Soybeans finished at $10.49, down 13 1/2 cents
• May 2026 Soybeans ended at $10.61 3/4, a drop of 12 3/4 cents