Spot prices lag inflation by 25%: A shortage in capacity might alter this situation

Trucking Industry Faces Ongoing Financial Strain

The American trucking sector is grappling with persistent economic challenges as spot rates remain stagnant, failing to keep up with inflation. This widening gap is putting significant financial strain on carriers across the country.

Spot Rates vs. Inflation: A Visual Comparison

The following chart illustrates the divergence between spot trucking rates, as tracked by the SONAR National Truckload Index, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI):

Comparison of truckload spot rates (SONAR: NTI.USA) and CPI (SONAR: CPI.USA). Data source: GoSONAR.com

Recent Trends in Spot Rates

By mid-January 2026, spot rates for national trucking have shown renewed strength after a late-2025 surge. The National Truckload Index now stands at $2.75 per mile, including fuel, according to SONAR, marking a return to levels not seen in several years.

Yet, if spot rates had simply mirrored the cumulative rise in the CPI since March 2020—prior to the pandemic-driven freight boom—they would now be around $3.50 per mile or higher. This represents a shortfall of roughly 27%.

Impact on Carriers and Owner-Operators

This shortfall has real consequences for small and mid-sized carriers, as well as owner-operators. Operating costs—including fuel, maintenance, insurance, tires, driver pay, and regulatory compliance—have all climbed sharply since 2020. However, revenue per mile has not kept pace. As a result, many truckers are barely breaking even or are operating at a loss, prompting some to leave the industry. This trend has contributed to a gradual tightening of capacity observed from late 2025 into early 2026.

Post-Pandemic Rate Fluctuations

The chart below highlights the dramatic shifts in the market since the pandemic:

• Spot rates soared in 2021–2022 amid supply chain disruptions and surging demand.
• Rates then plummeted through 2023 and much of 2024, falling well below inflation-adjusted pre-pandemic levels.
• In recent months, spot rates have rebounded, climbing during the 2025 holiday season and into early 2026, driven by seasonal demand, winter weather, and reduced capacity.

Despite the recent upturn, the long-term trend is clear: trucking companies have absorbed rising costs without corresponding increases in rates. This has been made worse by an oversupply of capacity in previous years, partly due to an influx of new drivers—many of whom may not meet the compliance standards upheld by experienced American truckers a decade ago.

The Road Ahead for Truckers

Truck drivers are essential to the nation’s supply chain, yet many are struggling because rates have not kept up with the cost of doing business. Fair compensation is needed to reflect the true expenses involved in moving freight across the country.

Key Factors That Could Shift the Market in 2026

• Stricter FMCSA enforcement, including action against non-compliant training providers and drivers, could remove thousands from the market.
• Years of high operating costs have devastated the finances of many carriers.
• Carriers maintaining discipline in managing capacity.
• Potential rebounds in demand from the industrial and housing sectors.
• Ongoing regulatory challenges and increasing equipment expenses.

Currently, the data is clear: shippers have benefited from years of low rates, but that era may be ending as compliance enforcement and natural attrition reduce available capacity.

With spot rates showing renewed momentum and regulatory crackdowns continuing, 2026 may offer carriers a chance to recover lost profitability. Shippers should prepare for a changing market landscape this year.