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⑴ The U.S. Treasury has recently announced a 30-day sanction waiver for maritime sales of Iranian oil, aiming to ease energy supply pressures in the market following the U.S.-Israel conflict. This marks the third temporary relaxation of sanctions by the U.S. in about two weeks, during which restrictions on Russian oil have also been loosened. ⑵ According to the general license, Iranian crude oil and products shipped between March 20 and April 19 are permitted for sale. Treasury Secretary Besent stated that this move will quickly inject approximately 140 million barrels of crude oil into the global market, with the goal of increasing supply and helping to alleviate short-term pressures. ⑶ From a trading psychology perspective, the repeated changes in sanction pace highlight the policy's balance between curbing oil prices and maintaining supply. Institutional data shows that the energy market has been continuously pricing in geopolitical risks recently, and this waiver acts as a regulatory variable for the tight supply expectations. ⑷ Besent said in a statement that this operation aims to use Iranian crude oil to lower prices, offsetting potential volatility caused by military actions from Tehran. The market's future focus will be on whether the policy will be further extended or adjusted after the 30-day window period.

He pledged not to implement unpaid leave policies for employees, while maintaining the original aircraft procurement plan without any delays. In addition, United Continental Airlines will not lower the service standards of its regional fleet or initiate any special cost-cutting actions. Kirby emphasized that the company will continue to advance capital expenditures as planned, ensuring that long-term investment projects are not hindered by short-term market fluctuations. This series of decisions highlights the management's confidence in operational stability and future growth potential, demonstrating unique strategic determination in the face of industry challenges.

This forward-looking prediction highlights the aviation industry's deep concerns over sustained high energy costs. Kirby pointed out that, based on this oil price trend forecast, United Airlines is accelerating fleet modernization and optimizing fuel efficiency as countermeasures. As an energy-intensive industry, fuel costs typically account for 20%-30% of total operating expenses, and prolonged high oil prices may trigger a new round of strategic adjustments within the sector. It is noteworthy that current international oil prices fluctuate around $85 per barrel. If, as United Airlines predicts, prices break through $175, it would set a historic peak since the 2008 financial crisis. This aggressive forecast not only reflects airlines' vigilance toward geopolitical risks and supply-demand imbalances, but also suggests that the aviation industry may face even more severe cost challenges over the next four years.