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The US economy is showing a divided state, with financial markets booming while the real economy is declining. The manufacturing PMI continues to contract, yet the stock market is rising due to concentrated profits in technology and financial companies, resulting in balance sheet inflation. Monetary policy struggles to benefit the real economy, and fiscal policy faces difficulties. The market structure leads to low capital efficiency, widening the gap between rich and poor and increasing social discontent. Cryptocurrency is seen as a relief valve, offering open financial opportunities. The economic cycle oscillates between policy adjustments and market reactions, lacking substantial recovery. Summary generated by Mars AI. The accuracy and completeness of this summary are still being iteratively updated by the Mars AI model.
Due to the reassessment of Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and the fading rebound of the U.S. stock market, the crypto market continues to experience liquidations, with significant ETF capital outflows and options traders increasing bets on volatility. Institutions warn that technical support for bitcoin above $90,000 is weak.
As long as the system continues to recycle debt into asset bubbles, we will not see a true recovery—only a slow stagnation masked by rising nominal figures.
