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格隆汇 March 11｜Piper Sandler has lowered the target price of Citigroup from $135 to $125, while maintaining an "Overweight" rating. (格隆汇)

Golden Ten Data reported on March 11 that Ilya Spivak, Global Macro Director at Tastylive, stated that the next catalyst for the market is likely to come from the inflation data itself. Economists expect the overall US CPI annual rate for February to record 2.4%, and the core CPI annual rate to record 2.5%. However, looking beneath the surface of the data reveals a key risk looming. Regardless of what this means for the energy component in the February CPI data, traders will eagerly watch whether core price growth (especially in the services sector) continues to decline slightly. This could spark hopes for inflation normalization after the Middle East conflict subsides, helping to calm the market’s anxious sentiment. If not, fragile financial markets may once again experience “safe haven” volatility, as investors face the possibility of interest rates remaining high for a longer period. This would signal a tough situation for stocks, bonds, and currencies other than the US dollar.

⑴ According to Goldman Sachs analysts, the International Energy Agency's proposed plan to release strategic reserves could cause crude oil prices to drop by $7 per barrel, but this depends on how much oil is absorbed into reserves. ⑵ The bank estimates that disruptions in exports from the Persian Gulf could reduce market supply by about 15.4 million barrels per day. ⑶ Goldman Sachs stated that IEA member countries may release more than 182 million barrels of oil, which would offset about 12 days of the aforementioned supply loss and lower oil prices, assuming that half of the released oil is absorbed by OECD reserves rather than immediately entering the market.