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Golden Ten Data reported on March 19 that Shigeto Nagai, Head of Japan Economics at Oxford Economics, stated that considering the possibility of Japan's economy falling into stagflation, they currently expect the central bank to postpone its next rate hike from June to July. Subsequently, the central bank is expected to continue gradual rate hikes in the first and third quarters of 2027. In the short term, rising energy costs will once again accelerate supply-side driven inflation. They now believe that the core CPI will not return to 2% until the second quarter of 2027, instead of the fourth quarter of 2026. Although the results of the spring wage negotiations are expected to be strong, higher inflation will limit real income growth. Therefore, they have lowered their forecast for real GDP growth in 2026 by 0.4 percentage points to 0.3%. Despite concerns about inflation expectation pressures and yen weakness, they believe the Bank of Japan may become more cautious about rate hikes, prioritizing the impact of rate hikes on corporate profits and real household income.

The Federal Reserve decision is "hawkish and wait-and-see," with multiple details sending signals. The timing of rate cuts is postponed again, and Powell may "temporarily remain in office"...

On March 19th, according to Kuaikeji, under pressure from the United States, TSMC has continuously increased its investments in the US in recent years, with committed investments reaching $165 billion. However, the US believes this is still insufficient. In the future, TSMC may not only have to add another $100 billion to $200 billion in investment but could also be forced to transfer 40% of its production capacity to the US, a goal previously revealed by US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. The production capacity TSMC transfers will not be outdated or mature processes; it will inevitably be advanced processes. The factories currently in mass production in the US are already using 4nm technology. Future transfers will only involve 3nm, 2nm, and the yet-to-be-mass-produced A16 and A14 processes, which is tantamount to hollowing out TSMC. Regarding this US objective, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang also responded at the GTC conference, stating that transferring 40% of production capacity to the US is "very difficult" and that the global supply chain will still rely on tech companies like TSMC for some time to come. (Dongxin News Agency)