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Golden Ten Data reported on April 20 that Kevin Warsh, the Federal Reserve's new chairman nominee, believes that the upcoming productivity growth could give the Fed room to lower interest rates, provided that higher productivity can achieve economic growth with low inflation. However, economist Ed Yardeni also expects the economy to benefit from technological advances this decade, but he disagrees that this outcome would justify lowering interest rates. Yardeni wrote: “While we share Warsh’s optimism about productivity, we fundamentally differ on what this outcome means for monetary policy.” Yardeni believes that faster growth will raise the natural rate of interest (the R* value), a rate that neither stimulates nor restrains the economy. He wrote: “If the Fed cuts the federal funds rate below R*, the risk is that this would fuel financial speculation and instability.”

On Monday, Germany and Brazil issued a joint statement expressing deep concern over the ongoing conflict in the Middle East and the impact on the freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz.According to the text of the joint declaration disclosed by institutions, both countries strongly urge all parties to make substantial progress in negotiations regarding the Iran issue.The Strait of Hormuz is a vital chokepoint for about one-third of the world's seaborne oil transportation. The market logic is that if geopolitical tensions worsen and passage is obstructed, the oil supply side will face the risk of a sudden tightening, which has directly triggered risk aversion among energy market participants.Although the joint statement did not specify particular threats, in the context of Trump's tariff remarks already stirring global trade sensitivities, the formal endorsement of the security of key waterways by major powers is equivalent to sending a signal to speculative capital that expectations of supply disruption are rising.Going forward, trading focus will quickly shift to the progress of the next round of contacts between Iran, the International Atomic Energy Agency, and major powers. Any stalemates in negotiation or rumors of military friction may be rapidly transmitted to various risk assets through surging shipping costs and oil price volatility, requiring traders to recalibrate their risk exposure as market volatility returns.

Golden Ten Data reported on April 20 that on the 20th local time, Omar Waili, Director of Iraq's Border Crossings Authority, announced that the Rabia border crossing on Iraq's northern border with Syria has reopened as of that day. Following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war in 2011, the Rabia border crossing, located in Iraq's northern Nineveh province adjacent to Syria, had remained closed for a long period due to the security situation in Syria and surrounding regions. Omar Waili stated that the reopening of the Rabia border crossing will promote the movement of people, commercial activities, and crude oil trading between Iraq, Syria, and neighboring countries via this crossing.