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(1) Bank of America economists Kai Wei Ang and Rahul Bajoria pointed out in an analysis report that Indonesia's energy subsidy policy is acting as a "buffer," effectively curbing domestic inflation pressure by limiting the transmission of global oil price increases to consumers. (2) Inflation outlook: Based on this, they made specific predictions about Indonesia's inflation trend. The inflation rate may slow from 4.76% in February to 3.4% in March, then drop below 3%, and remain at this level for the rest of 2026. (3) Fiscal risk: However, while the subsidy mechanism suppresses inflation, it also puts pressure on fiscal finances. The report warns that if Brent crude oil prices remain above $70 per barrel, it may challenge Indonesia's fiscal deficit target of 2.68% of GDP. The economists estimate that for every $10 increase in oil prices, the fiscal deficit will expand by 68 trillion Indonesian rupiah. They specifically pointed out that if Brent crude oil prices average $85 per barrel from March to December, Indonesia's government-set 3% deficit cap may be breached. (4) Policy choices and central bank actions: Facing this situation, Bank of America analysts believe that removing the price cap on subsidized gasoline will be the last resort for the Indonesian government. Against the backdrop of increasing global uncertainty, Indonesia's central bank may prioritize the stability of the rupiah. The report predicts that, assuming the Federal Reserve cuts rates twice this year, Indonesia's central bank may follow with one rate cut in the second half of the year, lowering the rate to 4.50%.

PANews, March 4 — According to a macro briefing released by a certain exchange’s research institute, reviewing eight major energy supply disruptions from 1979 to 2019, oil price movements have shown a “two-stage” pattern: The first stage is the “hesitation period” (0-30 days), where market pricing is driven by uncertainty rather than scarcity, with a historical average increase of only about 2%. However, in the current conflict, Brent crude oil has already risen by 9% on the fifth day, indicating that the market is pricing in tail risks ahead of time. The second stage is the “scarcity digestion period” (30-360 days), when Gulf countries’ 25-day inventory buffer is depleted and forced production shutdowns begin, with a historical average increase of 44%, and extreme cases reaching 110%-140%. The report points out that the daily crude oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from the normal 16 million barrels to 4 million barrels, Gulf countries’ inventories have only a 25-day buffer left, and when tank utilization reaches the critical threshold of 85%, oil fields will be forced to shut down, accelerating oil prices into the “scarcity digestion period.” If oil prices remain at $85-95, CPI will rise by 30-40 basis points, which is still manageable; if oil prices rise to $115-130, CPI will increase by 110-150 basis points, and the Federal Reserve may postpone rate cuts until 2027; if oil prices break through $180, CPI will rise by more than 300 basis points, potentially triggering stagflation. Bitcoin currently maintains a correlation above 0.9 with tech stocks; if oil prices stay above $110, CPI rises to 3%, and real interest rates exceed 2.5%, it will trigger a sell-off in tech stocks. At that point, the correlation between Bitcoin and US stocks may break, triggering a shift to the “digital gold” narrative. Key indicators to watch include: vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf countries’ inventory utilization rate, March 11 CPI data, March 18 Federal Reserve guidance, whether the 10-year TIPS real interest rate breaks above 2.5%, whether the 30-day correlation between Bitcoin and the IGV index falls below 0.5, and whether ETF fund flows turn net positive.

ChainCatcher news, according to Golden Ten Data, as the Middle East conflict has caused most air transportation to and from Dubai to come to a halt, the global circulation of gold and silver is experiencing severe disruption. Traders say this situation may further intensify the already highly volatile precious metals prices seen this year. Dubai is a key global hub for precious metals transportation, with about 20% of global gold circulation passing through the city last year. John Reade, Senior Market Strategist at the World Gold Council, stated that the availability of gold supply has already become an issue.